035
FXUS61 KALY 020532
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY AND COOL END TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE SHIFT INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVER NORTH CAROLINA, WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE CHILLY WITH VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE LOW 40S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE AS IT
TRAVERSES EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE NEAR 40 (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS), WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S (TERRAIN) TO MID 30S (VALLEYS).
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FEATURING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE POLEWARD
EXIT REGION OF A 140-160 KT JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (60-
90%) MAINLY ACROSS THE ADKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, WHERE
LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS AMOUNTS OF AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION,
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 925-850 HPA
WINDS AROUND 40-45 KTS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
PV SIGNATURE. VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORING 24-HR MAX GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH
MAINLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY (CHANNELING) AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES, SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADKS (50-90%). WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MILDER DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 50S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 60S (VALLEYS), AND WILL
FALL TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 40S/50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TO START THE
PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S (TERRAIN) TO MID 30S (VALLEYS).
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SEVERAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NEARBY, ALLOWING FOR THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH LOW
POTENTIAL (30-50%) OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MAINLY
20S/30S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW, A CONTINUED WESTERLY WIND FETCH OFF
THE LAKES IN THE 925-850HPA LAYER WILL SUPPORT FEW-SCT STRATOCU
CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500-4000 FT THROUGH 18-21 UTC. PSF COULD SEE
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS 14-20 UTC/02 BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF. THEN, WINDS BACK BY 20-21 UTC TO THE
SOUTHWEST ENOUGH THAT SKIES CLEAR. ADDITIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS
GRAZE POU SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC/03 AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
SOUTH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 14-15 UTC BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5-8KTS AND GUSTS
REACH 15-20 KTS (STRONGEST ALB/PSF) BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...35
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