659
FXUS61 KALY 021802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
TURN WINDY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 102 PM EST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND 1026 HPA) IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NEW JERSEY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL CU AND STRATOCU OVER NORTHERN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL SEEING GUSTS
AROUND 15 MPH OR SO.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
FOR TONIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
ON MONDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GET
NEAR 60 DEGREES, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
MPH. AFTER A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY, CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE INCREASING FOR
THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH, WITH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAINING BREEZY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ON TUESDAY, CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING/HEATING. LATEST NBM BLEND GIVES
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SOME MAX GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES, WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
MAX GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ARE AROUND 50%-70% (LOWER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA). AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THE PROBABILITY FOR MAX GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
(46+ MPH) IS LOWER, BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE BERKSHIRES FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS, ALONG
WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE,
BUT A LINE OF PASSING RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS, IT WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR DURING THE DAY AND 20S AND 30S AT
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THRU 1800 UTC/MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, ASIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3 KFT AGL AT KPSF PRIOR TO 21Z/SUN. THE
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS
DECREASING BETWEEN 20Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON. SOME CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/MON. EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS, EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL MVFR STRATUS MAY
FORM BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH CIGS ABOUT 2 KFT AGL. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING.
THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND DIRECTION AT 7 KT OR LESS OR CALM
THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KPSF AROUND 10 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
EARLY TONIGHT, EXCEPT LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
4-8 KT OVERNIGHT AT KALB. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 8-12
KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AT
KALB TO 20 KT OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page