947
FXUS61 KALY 022330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
TURN WINDY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE
AS OF 625 PM EST, TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY
THIS EVENING AMID A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RANGING FROM NEAR 30 DEGREES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID-40S ELSEWHERE. WITH A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CONTINUING, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME PLACES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT CAN
HELP REDUCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL THERE. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL
BACK INTO THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AS OF 102 PM EST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND 1026 HPA) IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER NEW JERSEY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL CU AND STRATOCU OVER NORTHERN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL SEEING GUSTS
AROUND 15 MPH OR SO.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
FOR TONIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
ON MONDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GET
NEAR 60 DEGREES, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
MPH. AFTER A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY, CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE INCREASING FOR
THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH, WITH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAINING BREEZY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ON TUESDAY, CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING/HEATING. LATEST NBM BLEND GIVES
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SOME MAX GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES, WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
MAX GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ARE AROUND 50%-70% (LOWER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA). AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THE PROBABILITY FOR MAX GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
(46+ MPH) IS LOWER, BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE BERKSHIRES FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS, ALONG
WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE,
BUT A LINE OF PASSING RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS, IT WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR DURING THE DAY AND 20S AND 30S AT
NIGHT.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
DEVELOPING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 20Z/MON. MIXED
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD OF RAIN.
CALM WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND
10 KT ON MONDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/TUE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27/33
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page