934
FXUS61 KALY 030809
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
309 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD AND BREEZY TODAY BEFORE A POTENT COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A 50 TO 80%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH MAINLY DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, RENSSELAER PLATEAU INTO WESTERN MA.
IF CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH INCREASES, A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MARCHES FROM WEST TO EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER.
- LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/CENTRAL TACONICS. RAIN MIXES WITH
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS AT AND ABOVE 2000FT BUT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION:
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH MANY WAKING UP TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S, MORNING SUN AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING UP TO
20-25KTS AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY. AS A
SHARP SHORTWAVE ROTATES ALONG THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT, ITS NOTABLE
500HPA COLD POOL TRACKS OVERHEAD (-25C TO -30C) RESULTING IN
STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT, 850-500HPA LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN TO 6-6.5C/KM AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RAP AND 3KM NAM INDICATE ~100J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
ITS POTENT SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED,
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AT PLAY LOOK TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER FROM 18 - 02 UTC AS THE FRONT
MARCHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WE ADD SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO THE FORECAST IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.
ONCE THE PERIOD OF RAIN AND COLD FRONT EXITS TO OUR EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH GUSTY WINDS ENSUING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN
FACT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 30MPH THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOCUSED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH LAKE
ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 12C, THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION ENSUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL EASILY
EXCEED THE DESIRED ~13C DELTA-T TO INDUCE A LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (7.5-8C/KM IN THE 850-500HPA LAYER)
LOOK TO ALSO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GRAUPEL PELLETS ALSO OCCUR IN ANY CONVECTION. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (COATING TO 0.5")
AT/ABOVE 2000FT. THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY WINDS/COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE BUT AS THESE WINDS ABUT
THE SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS, AND BERKSHIRES, ALSO EXPECT
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
(MIXING/TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS).
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TUESDAY SHIFTS TO THE STRONG, GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE RISES BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION, STRONG
CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH AND AN IMPRESSIVE COASTAL LOW THAT
UNDERGOES RAPID CYCLOGENSIS AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WITH THE U-COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IN THE 850-500HPA
LAYER RANGING 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, THE WIND
FIELD ALOFT WILL FEATURE VERY STRONG WINDS. AS SKIES CLEAR
TUESDAY MORNING, INSOLATION AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY
IN PLACE WILL EASILY SUPPORT A VERY WELL-MIXED AND DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CAN TRANSFER THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE SFC.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 25 TO 60% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (UP TO 80% CENTRAL TACONICS
AND WESTERN MA) ON TUESDAY WHERE THE CHANNEL FLOW CAN ENHANCE
WESTERLY WINDS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AS THESE WINDS CAN RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND CAN
FLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. BESIDES THE WINDS, THE LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE INCOMING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SAWTOOTH OF HERKIMER COUNTY
INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS FINALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS
NORTHWARD. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS OUR NEXT CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE MIDWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THERE IS A 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH
DURING THE 24HOUR PERIOD FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THURS.
DISCUSSION:
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ITS FAVORABLE
POSITION IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL HELP
DEEPEN THE SFC LOW BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES, BREEZY WINDS, AND MAY
EVEN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN
ITS COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH. GIVEN THE SHARP WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND STRONG LIFT ALOFT, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THE IS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS, HIGHER TERRAIN AREA COULD SEE A TRANISTION TO SNOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS
WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES CAN SUPPORT SNOW BUT THERE IS A 20 TO
40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND 10% ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A HAZARD TO
MONITOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
35MPH FOR THE 24HR PERIOD FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THURS. AGAIN, IF
CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH INCREASES, ADDITIONAL
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. GIVEN THE MUCH CHILLIER AIR MASS
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS CLIPPER, THURSDAY LOOKS
QUITE BLUSTERY. LUCKILY, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE GUSTY WINDS. OUR PATTERN
STAYS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER FRONT TO MONITOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
DEVELOPING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 20Z/MON. MIXED
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD OF RAIN.
CALM WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND
10 KT ON MONDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/TUE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...33
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