088
FXUS61 KALY 040618
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE SAME, THOUGH STRONGER WINDS THAT MAY
WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS. THE WORK WEEK FINISHES
WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEFORE DISTURBED
WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND BERKSHIRES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- 30 TO 50% WIDESPREAD PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION:
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW A NORTHERN-
STREAM, NEGATIVELY-TILTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER- LEVEL FEATURE ALSO RESTS OVER THE HUDSON BAY,
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN-STREAM COASTAL LOW IS TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, PROGRESSING NORTHWARD CLOSELY PARALLELING
THE EASTERN SHORE, CURRENTLY NESTLED IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY IS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT THAT WE WILL SEE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AS ITS EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL STEER IT FAR
ENOUGH AWAY THAT ITS RESULTANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM IS THE
ONE THAT WILL DRIVE THE DEVIATION FROM THIS MORNING'S
REGIONWIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO OUR CWA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND TO NEARLY 0.5" ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. OF
COURSE, FOR THOSE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, SOME OF THIS QPF
INCLUDES THE MINIMAL COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF SNOW THAT WILL MIX IN
OR BE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE NORMAL
DIURNAL CYCLE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE IMPENDING
FRONT, BUT MOST WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING'S RAINFALL. AND WHILE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE INCREASED QPF IN THESE AREAS,
EMBEDDED "HEAVIER" DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENT 100 J/KG OR SO OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ADVANCING COLD POOL OF THE SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
SHOWERS WILL LARGELY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT, BUT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING,
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS,
THAT WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, STILL
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STEEPNESS OF MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED, SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL. THE WIDESPREAD INFLUENCE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SUSTAINED
AND WIND GUST SPEEDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
DIRECTION FAVORING CHANNELING IN VALLEY AREAS AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE TOMORROW WHEN RAPID DRYING WILL ALLOW THE
50-55KT 850MB JET TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL
BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
BERKSHIRES, WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OF 35 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY. ISOLATED GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
A CONVECTIVE SHOWER UNDERGO RAPID COOLING. BUT GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS, WE, IN COLLABORATION
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES, REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED
REGIONWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST, CAUSING WINDS TO BEGIN TO WANE. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER NORTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/MIX THEREOF SHOWERS WILL RESULT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, ALL
SOURCES ALLUDE TO THIS BEING A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
GENERALLY, CONSENSUS POINTS TO A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE CYCLONE BENEATH ITS FORWARD FLANK AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AND REACHING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN MERE ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LINGER. SOME MODELS THEN DEPICT THIS LOW
SLOWING IN PROGRESSION AND UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SHORTLY AFTER EXITING OUR CWA, CREATING A STEEP PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND LEADING TO
A STRENGTHENING OF THE 850MB LLJ OVERHEAD. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THE
SWIFT SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS, THIS TIME ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE PORTRAYAL OF
A 55 TO NEARLY 70 KT 850MB JET, WIND ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY SHOULD THIS SOLUTION BE REALIZED. IN FACT, 13Z NBM
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH ARE CURRENTLY 30
TO 50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS, WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
LEAST FOR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ALSO POSSIBLY IN VALLEY
AREAS WHERE CHANNELING AND DOWNSLOPING WILL BE FAVORED ONCE
AGAIN BY THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION BENEATH
RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE, LOW, AND COLD FRONT, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
CUT OFF FROM INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BEGIN TO DECREASE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE IN PLACE
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S AND
50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A REDUCTION TO THE MID/UPPER 30S
TO LOW 50S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 30S AND TO
LOW 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 20S WITH LOW 30S IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL THEN RISE INTO THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
ANOTHER NORTHERN-STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AT THIS LEAD TIME, THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE OUTPUT OF THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NBM. BUT DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES, THIS DOES LOOK
LIKE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEFORE
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S BEFORE HIGHS
SUNDAY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. FINALLY, LOWS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS RAIN SHOWERS FROM A
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR
WEATHER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ054.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...17
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