304
FXUS61 KALY 040804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
AREAS TO THE EAST, BEFORE WINDS FINALLY RELAX TONIGHT. THEN,
OUR NEXT CLIPPER DISTURBANCES APPROACHES TOMORROW LEADING TO
BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEFORE RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN
QUITE STRONG BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM TODAY FOR EASTERN
RENSSELAER COUNTY INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THE WHERE GUSTS
UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. THERE IS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS.
- 40 TO 70% WIDESPREAD PROBABILITY VALUES FOR AT LEAST 40 MPH
WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50MPH, A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND
WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE IN HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, VALLEY AREAS WILL TURN MAINLY SUNNY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION RESULTING IN A WELL-MIXED
AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP NEARLY 700HPA DURING
PEAK HEATING TODAY. WITH WINDS IN THE 925-850HPA LAYER 30 TO
45KTS, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH TO 50 TO 75% CHANCE IN EASTERN RENSSELAER
COUNTY INTO WESTERN MA. THEREFORE, WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO
BOSTON TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 4PM
TODAY. IT WAS A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT IN THE WIND ADVISORY BUT WITH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 30% FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH, WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE
LINGERING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS EXCEEDING 45MPH THERE. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE QUITE
BLUSTERY TODAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH GUSTS RANGING 30 TO 45MPH. ANY UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN BLOW
AROUND AND A FEW TREE LIMBS CAN STILL FALL.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S BUILDS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALSO BUILDING ALOFT. AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
DARK. WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BETWEEN THE
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE TOO CHILLY WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST.
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INTENSIFYING CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY WED A.M BUT WITH A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT, WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BECOME TOO GUSTY. BY MIDDAY
OR EARLY P.M WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
ERODING THE INVERSION WHICH WILL RESULT IN DEEPER MIXING AS WE
ENTER INTO THE RESPECTIVE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL IMPEDE JUST HOW GUSTY WE BECOME WITH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWING UNDER 20% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30MPH.
OUR CLIPPER CONTINUES DEEPENING WED P.M INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
PARENT COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE
TILT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED FROM THE SFC
LOW'S POSITION IN THE FAVORABLE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A
~150KT JET STREAK. SHOWERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TRACK INTO
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER 18 - 00 UTC BEFORE
SPREADING EASTWARD.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE COLD FRONT/LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MARCHES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00 AND 06
UTC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING (COULD
EVEN HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AGAIN), A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST - NORTHWEST WILL ENSUE WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING (10 TO
15HPA FROM 03 - 09 UTC PER THE GFS), THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS WIDESPREAD 30 TO 70% CHANCES FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH
WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS RANGING 45
TO 55KTS. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK LIMITED TO A RATHER
SHORT WINDOW WED NIGHT, SUCH STRONG WINDS CAN CERTAINLY RESULT
IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS, BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS AND LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY WED NIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
THERMAL PROFILES CRASHING WITH WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED HERE WITH A 30 TO 70% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS
TO EXCEED 1 INCH. OUR CLIPPER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON THURSDAY
AS IT EXITS TO OUR EAST WITH STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH A 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 30MPH
THURSDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND) BEFORE
WEAKENING FURTHER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY UNDER 50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WE TURN CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
AND WINDS WEAKEN/SKIES CLEAR RESULTING IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. IN FACT, THERE IS AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL UNDER 30 DEGREES REGIONWIDE. OUR FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON "RINSE AND REPEAT" HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER TRACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH OUR FORECAST CARRYING LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. A BRIEF BREAK ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUILDS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE ALSO BUILDS IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING
COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE CPC 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS 50-60% CHANCE FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NOV 9-13.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS RAIN SHOWERS FROM A
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR
WEATHER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. VERY WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ054.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...17
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