387
FXUS61 KALY 050838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN RESULT IN
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN/NORTHERN
CATSKILLS. THERE IS A 25 TO 60% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS EXCEED
50MPH IN THESE AREAS.
- WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS,
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, LITCHFIELD
COUNTY, AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 45% CHANCE THAT WIND GUST EXCEED
45MPH IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF ITS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE. AS THE SFC WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL ERODE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY
(25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 25MPH). WHILE SKIES ONLY BREAK
FOR LIMITED SUN AS WE ENTER INTO THE RESPECTIVE WARM SECTOR,
THE DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH EVEN LOW 60S IN THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY. SHOWERS REACH OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACK AREAS
INITIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
APPROACHES.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON ITS POTENT COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES
EASTWARD TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACK AND MOHAWK
VALLEY AREAS BY AROUND 00 UTC. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A
MORE INTENSE SFC LOW DEVELOPING BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER, THE U-COMPONET OF THE WINDS IN THE
850-500HPA JET THAT NOSES IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT STILL
IMPRESSIVELY RANGES 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER
THE NAEFS WITH 40-50KTS IN THE 925-850HPA LAYER ALONE. THE
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ALLOW MIXING DEPTHS TO EXTEND UP TO 850-800HPA AND THE
IMPRESSIVE FALL/RISE COUPLET WILL PROMOTE THE TRANSFER OF STRONG
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR A SHORT WINDOW FROM 00 TO 06 UTC FOR
IMPRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/LINE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, SOUTHERN VT INTO WESTERN
MA. GIVEN THERE IS A 25 TO 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 50MPH,
HIGH WIND WATCHES HERE WERE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS.
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING 58MPH HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND THIS EVENT OCCURRING AT NIGHT MEANS
IT WILL NOT HAVE DAYTIME MIXING TO ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT BUT EVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH WIND GUSTS 50 TO 55MPH
CAN CERTAINLY LEAD TO DAMAGE INCLUDING DOWNED TREES/LIMBS THAT
CAN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. IN
ADDITION, LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 100-150 J/KG) COULD
SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT RACES EASTWARD
THIS EVENING, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED ITS MARGINAL RISK (1 OF
5) FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TONIGHT. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING 55MPH IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, MID- HUDSON
VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY SO OPTED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, WRAP AROUND, LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, PEAKS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BY 03 - 06 UTC AS
WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CRASH BELOW 1000FT. UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUAL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BY 06 - 12 UTC/THURS, PROBABILITY
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 50KTS TREND DOWNWARDS AND OUR HIGH WIND
WARNINGS/WIND ADVISORIES END 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY THANKS TO CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DEEP MIXING WITH A 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER
30MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES THEN TREND
DOWNWARDS THROUGH SUNSET AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
GREATER THAN 80% CONFIDENCE REGIONWIDE FOR HIGHS TO FALL BELOW
50. WE REMAIN CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD WITH THE LIGHT BREEZE FINALLY RELAXING TOWARDS MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW 30
DEGREES REGIONWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BELOW 45 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY REGIONWIDE.
DISCUSSION:
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OUR FIRST POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
EVENT NEXT WEEK IN FAVORED AREAS. FIRST, WE HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED ITS
EARLIER END TIME FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS SO POPS ARE HIGHEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND TREND DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FOR
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR A CLOSED NORTHERN STREAM LOW IN CANADA AS IT
AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO THE CONUS, POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED
THE TROUGH BECOMES. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A 30 TO
60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A STRONG PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND
THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SHOWING A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A 0.5" OF SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACK, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND
NORTHERN CATSKILLS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS GREATER THAN A 75%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 45 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS A
CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS, BRINGING
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO BRING LLWS
TO THE TERMINALS WITH A SOUTHWEST LLJ AROUND 40-45 KT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER AND ITS STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE
FAST MOVING, WITH THIS POTENTIAL ADDRESSED IN PROB30 GROUPS. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35-
45 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS MAINLY AT
KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-064>066-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...17
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