830
FXUS61 KALY 052032
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
332 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE EXTENDED WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION. THE MAIN THREAT IS AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS
WHERE WINDS COULD GUST OVER 50 MPH.
- WIND ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LITCHFIELD,
DUTCHESS, EASTERN ULSTER, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WARREN,
HAMILTON, AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS COULD
GUST OVER 40 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 2 PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND HOWL TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WIND
HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
GUSTY SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BY SPC. THE KEY
TAKE AWAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT WHERE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR,
UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN BE MOVED AROUND, AND TREE LIMBS COULD BE
KNOCKED DOWN.
ONCE THESE GUSTY SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, LINGERING
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHERE 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN
ACCUMULATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS EAST TOMORROW, DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN AND WINDS DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH.
WHILE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE TOMORROW, WINDS
DECREASE TOMORROW NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. BEYOND SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR AMOUNTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST SHIFT IS THAT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND BY MONDAY HIGHS RANGE IN
THE 30S AND LOW 40S AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A COLD TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE
30S AND LOW 40S.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIG HEIGHTS THEN EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR
LEVELS PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LLWS AT ALL SITES
INTO THIS EVENING, AS A SOUTHWEST JET OF 35-40 KT MOVES
OVERHEAD. LLWS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12
KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT, SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO 16-26 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 KT
DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-064>066-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...07
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