671
FXUS61 KALY 052322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE EXTENDED WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION. THE MAIN THREAT IS AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS
WHERE WINDS COULD GUST OVER 50 MPH.
- WIND ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LITCHFIELD,
DUTCHESS, EASTERN ULSTER, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WARREN,
HAMILTON, AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS COULD
GUST OVER 40 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 2 PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND HOWL TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WIND
HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
GUSTY SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BY SPC. THE KEY
TAKE AWAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT WHERE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR,
UNSECURED OBJECTS CAN BE MOVED AROUND, AND TREE LIMBS COULD BE
KNOCKED DOWN.
ONCE THESE GUSTY SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, LINGERING
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHERE 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN
ACCUMULATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS EAST TOMORROW, DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN AND WINDS DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH.
WHILE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE TOMORROW, WINDS
DECREASE TOMORROW NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. BEYOND SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR AMOUNTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST SHIFT IS THAT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND BY MONDAY HIGHS RANGE IN
THE 30S AND LOW 40S AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A COLD TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE
30S AND LOW 40S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VISIBILITY WITHIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN MAINLY ABOVE 6SM, ALTHOUGH BRIEF BURSTS OF
MORE MODERATE PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS, SO
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, LINGERING LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THURSDAY, WHEN CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALL SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AROUND 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THESE
MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. ONCE
THE FRONT CROSSES (AROUND 02Z-03Z), WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND
15-25 KTS AND SOME GUSTS WITH REACH 25-40 KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
KALB/KPSF. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ABOUT 04Z-10Z).
ON THURSDAY, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER FOR THURSDAY EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH LESS GUSTS AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043-
064>066-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27
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