466
FXUS61 KALY 060535
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE EXTENDED WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
LAKE GEORGE- SARATOGA REGION, AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS
WHERE WINDS COULD GUST OVER 50 MPH.
- WIND ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD, DUTCHESS,
EASTERN ULSTER, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WARREN, HAMILTON, AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40
MPH.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 739 PM EST...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW RACING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WILL PASSING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MRMS IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY RIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT,
THERE ARE SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE
GENERALLY ONLY REACHING UP TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BASED ON THE NYS MESONET. SPC MESOANALYSIS DOESN'T
SHOW ANY SBCAPE OR MUCAPE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK, WITH THE
NEAREST INSTABILITY JUST AROUND 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PA. DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 60-80 KTS,
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BOUNDARY. NYS MESONET HAS BEEN SHOWING
GUSTS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, GOOD
MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS). THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE STRONG WINDS WILL
BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK THURSDAY OR SO.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ENDING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER, THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THIS
PRECIP AND UP TO AN INCH MAY ACCUMULATE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS EAST TOMORROW, DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN AND WINDS DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WHILE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE
TOMORROW, WINDS DECREASE TOMORROW NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH
LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. BEYOND SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR AMOUNTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST SHIFT IS THAT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND BY MONDAY HIGHS RANGE IN
THE 30S AND LOW 40S AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A COLD TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE
30S AND LOW 40S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z/THU AT
KPSF. WHILE A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 13-
19Z/THU, CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AND NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 15-
20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS BY 00Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
VETERANS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042-
043-064>066-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05/27
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...33
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