177
FXUS61 KALY 060705
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW WITH WINDS TURNING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ON SATURDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, MOHAWK
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, PORTIONS
OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE REGION, AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TACONICS WHERE THERE IS A 25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THROUGH 8AM TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50MPH IS LESS THAN 10%.
- WIND ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD, DUTCHESS,
EASTERN ULSTER, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WARREN, HAMILTON, AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A 20 TO 40% FOR
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.
- GUSTY WEST - NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO OVER 35MPH (HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN WESTERN MA AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS)
DISCUSSION:
OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS IT TURNS NEUTRAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED, ITS SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME. ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS NOW SWINGING
THROUGH OUR AREA, WE CAN EXPECT A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION. WINDS THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE UNDERPERFORMED
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY HAVING REACHING AROUND 40MPH PER THE
NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND FOCUS OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 12 UTC AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS
(6-10HPA IN 6 HRS PER THE GFS) AND ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR WRAPPING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SUPPORTING DEEPER MIXING, WE DID NOT WANT TO
DOWNGRADE HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO WIND ADVISORIES JUST YET. THERE
REMAINS A 25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 8 AM WHICH CAN RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST HIGH WIND WARNINGS AS NEEDED THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN. AS WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL UNDER 1000FT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS, EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND CONTINUED COLD AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY MIXING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING DEPTHS EXTENDING UP TO 850-800HPA. WITH
OUR CLIPPER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT EXITS OUT TO SEA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE, EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS,
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
CHANNEL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (46MPH+), THERE IS 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH TODAY (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN WESTERN
MA) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT. WINDS TURN MUCH
LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RETURN AS OUR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE
REGIONWIDE FOR LOWS TO FALL BELOW 30 DEGREES (EVEN 60 TO 80%
CHANCE FOR UNDER 25 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) BUT
BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHT BREEZE AND THEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE, WE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM.
OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SFC WARM
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY SUPPORTING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS EVEN A 45 TO 75% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH (BUT
UNDER 20% CHANCE FOR OVER 45MPH OR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA).
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF CANADA. RAIN SHOWERS
REACH AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY SUNSET/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE RATHER WEAK SO EXPECTING A
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH 06 UTC SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES TREND LOWER THEREAFTER AS
THE FRONT SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT STAY ELEVATED IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD REINFORCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
COMING SOON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z/THU AT
KPSF. WHILE A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 13-
19Z/THU, CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AND NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 15-
20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS BY 00Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
VETERANS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042-
043-064>066-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page