381
FXUS61 KALY 060805
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
305 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW WITH WINDS TURNING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ON SATURDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN VERMONT, BERKSHIRES, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE REGION, AND NORTH AND CENTRAL
TACONICS WHERE THERE IS JUST A 25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THROUGH 8AM TODAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD, DUTCHESS,
EASTERN ULSTER, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WARREN, HAMILTON, AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A 20 TO 40% FOR
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH THROUGH 8AM TODAY.
- GUSTY WEST - NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO OVER 35MPH (HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN WESTERN MA AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS)
DISCUSSION:
OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS IT TURNS NEUTRAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED, ITS SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME. ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS NOW SWINGING
THROUGH OUR AREA, WE CAN EXPECT A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION. WINDS THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE UNDERPERFORMED
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY HAVING REACHING AROUND 40MPH PER THE
NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SFC
LOW DEEPENING MORE SLOWLY AS IT EXITS WELL TO OUR EAST AND THE
FOCUS OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH.
GIVEN THE WEAKER WIND TRENDS, WE DOWNGRADED HIGH WIND WARNINGS
TO WIND ADVISORIES AS THERE REMAINS A 25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 8 AM. SUCH WINDS
CAN STILL RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AS NEEDED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN
THE TERRAIN. AS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL UNDER 1000FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS,
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND CONTINUED COLD AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY MIXING WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING DEPTHS EXTENDING UP TO 850-800HPA. WITH
OUR CLIPPER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT EXITS OUT TO SEA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE, EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS,
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
CHANNEL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (46MPH+), THERE IS 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH TODAY (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN WESTERN
MA) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT. WINDS TURN MUCH
LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RETURN AS OUR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE
REGIONWIDE FOR LOWS TO FALL BELOW 30 DEGREES (EVEN 60 TO 80%
CHANCE FOR UNDER 25 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) BUT
BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHT BREEZE AND THEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE, WE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM.
OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SFC WARM
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY SUPPORTING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS EVEN A 45 TO 75% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 35MPH (BUT
UNDER 20% CHANCE FOR OVER 45MPH OR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA).
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF CANADA. RAIN SHOWERS
REACH AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY SUNSET/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE RATHER WEAK SO EXPECTING A
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH 06 UTC SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES TREND LOWER THEREAFTER AS
THE BEST MOISTURE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENS/STALLS OVERHEAD. POPS STAY ELEVATED IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
COULD REINFORCE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN OUR FIRST LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW EVENT EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE THE LONG TERM IS AN AMPLIFYING AND DEEPENING
TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN,
THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT OUR FIRST LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER EVENT FOR
FAVORED AREAS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND TACONICS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CUT- OFF LOW IN CANADA DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN A NEARLY FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOOKS
TO INDUCE AN INLAND TRACKING SFC LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE
THE DYNAMICS, THE BEST MOISTURE FETCH MAY REMAIN TO OUR EAST
WHICH EXPLAINS WHY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR LOW WITH UNDER A
40% CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 7AM MONDAY.
WE TREND MUCH COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LATEST CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK (NOV 11 -
15). THERE IS EVEN A 25 TO 75% CHANCE THAT DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA REMAIN UNDER 40 DEGREES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE
CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (VETERAN'S DAY). AS OUR CLOSED
PARENT CYCLONE TRACKS OVERHEAD EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS
TO INDUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AND GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z/THU AT
KPSF. WHILE A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 13-
19Z/THU, CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AND NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE BETWEEN 15-
20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS BY 00Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
VETERANS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042-
043-064>066-083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063-082-084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...33
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