749
FXUS61 KALY 070533
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RAIN SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 1245 PM EST, BLUSTERY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW
PELLETS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY, REACHING
25-35 MPH PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND MID
LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE MID/UPPER 40S WITHIN MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EXCEPT
LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, WITH ONLY MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. MIN TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SHELTERED AREAS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO EAST CENTRAL CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST JET TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AND WITH STRONG WINDS NOTED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION, IT APPEARS
THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION EXTENDING INTO SW VT AND THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE/FREQUENCY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS. HIGHS SATURDAY
REACHING 55-60 WITHIN VALLEYS AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, COOLEST ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS. SOME RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND
MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH TRACKS EAST, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY ON SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY, AND
DEPENDING ON SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT, COULD EVOLVE
INTO A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES INTO THE
REGION, RAIN COULD MIX WITH/CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY BY MONDAY MORNING, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN CT IF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
QUICKLY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. 13Z NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 24-HOUR
PROBS FOR SNOWFALL >1" ENDING 7 PM THURSDAY ARE 10-40% FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION N & W.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS POSSIBLY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD, AND ALSO FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 13Z NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR 72-HOUR SNOWFALL > 4" ENDING 7 PM
THURSDAY IS 60-80%+ ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND
20-30% ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHEAST BENNINGTON COUNTY. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER/MID 40S WITHIN VALLEYS
MONDAY-THURSDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND 20S/30S THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 06Z SAT...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS 12Z/FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 5-6 KFT AGL PRIOR TO 21Z/SAT AND
BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL SKY COVER 10-12 KFT AGL. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PRIOR TO 00Z/SAT
WITH VCSH GROUPS USED. PROB30 GROUPS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WERE USED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-05Z/SAT
WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM OR OCCLUDED
FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 4 KT OR LESS TO CALM
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z AND FURTHER INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 10-15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM WITH
SOME GUSTS 20-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND
AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KT. LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUES BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/SAT AT
KPSF/KPOU/KGF, AS THE 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT WITH THE
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND SHEAR EXPANDS TO KALB TOWARDS
00Z/SAT...AND HAVE KEPT LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z/SAT
WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS 35-45 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...24/31
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...15
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