080
FXUS61 KALY 071741
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY, THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH
SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SHOWERS
LOOK TO BEGIN BETWEEN 3-6PM FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND 6-9PM FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND
50S THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH. SOME
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
AND UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PORTIONS OF THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S.
DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WITH BOTH SYSTEMS
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR OFF THE COAST, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL STILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIPITATION, PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD START OUT WITH
SNOW OR A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS MILDER AIR BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY. LATEST NBM MEAN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SPANNING 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY IS BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION
ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO THE
MID WEEK.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NBM/ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW MON NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY SETTING UP
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL SET-UP
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS. IT WILL
BE BRISK WITH PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE VALLEYS COULD ALSO SEE A RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWER TRANSITION WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH A FEW
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. VETERANS DAY WILL BE BRISK AND
COLD WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
OF THE VALLEY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 40F. HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF >4" OF SNOW IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z/WED ARE 40-60% OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY GET DISRUPTED TUE NIGHT, AS THE FLOW
FLATTENS/BACKS OR LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN DACKS
AND 24-HR PROBS FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT >6" ARE 25-40% FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WED. THE
SHORT-WAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY AHEAD OF
THE SHORT- WAVE AND COLD FRONT ON WED WITH MID AND UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBS
FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE TO 60-80% FOR THE WESTERN DACKS,
NORTHERN CATSKILLS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS WED
NIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS FINISH THE EXTENDED BELOW
NORMAL BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH BRISK CONDITIONS ON THU IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWERED CEILINGS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE
TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 07/22Z TO 08/06Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU. PROB30 GROUP CONTINUES
FOR KPSF AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IMPACTS TO THE AIRFIELD AS SHOWERS COULD BE
TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE MVFR THROUGH 08Z
AND 12Z WHEN THEY GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 27 KNOTS. BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WIND GUSTS
DECREASE AND WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST RANGING BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED TO
MENTION LLWS FOR KPSF, KPOU, AND KGFL AS THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FOR TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AT 2 KFT RANGING
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. SUNDAY:
HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. MONDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. VETERANS DAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN. TUESDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...05
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