039
FXUS61 KALY 072323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. COLDER AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A 50-80% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
0.50" OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION:
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, SPREADING EAST
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 0.10" IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH 0.25-0.35" IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVE MILD TONIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION NOT REALLY COMMENCING UNTIL SAT A.M. SO LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST AREAS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN
THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A.M. IS SOME NUISANCE
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY JET(35-45 KT AT 850 MB). GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT SO THAT THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP. NBM
STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS, BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHEST
PROBS (30-50%) FOR > 1" OF SNOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, WITH A 10-30% OF > 0.01" ICE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SOME OTHER AREAS FOR POTENTIAL FROZEN PRECIP, SUCH AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION/S. VT WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR MAY LOCK IN (CAD SIGNATURE) INTO SUN A.M. AS THE PRECIP
SPREADS NORTH/EAST. IF CONFIDENCE IN ICE INCREASES, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN BY THE TIME THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY SUN P.M, AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE TRACKING NE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL NORTH OF I-90 (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S), WITH WARMER READINGS
SOUTH (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S).
MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN LINGERING. IT APPEARS THIS
SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO DRAW IN
ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WHILE THE PRECIP IS OCCURRING, EXCEPT
FOR OVER THE W. ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN
TOWARDS MON MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON MON, WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A DEEP TROUGH STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THE MAIN STORY IS WINTER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE FIRST TIME
EARLY THIS SEASON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE A LARGE/DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -1 TO
-3 STDEV ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL SET UP. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS, A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME LOOKS FAVORED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE
OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES. 72-HR NBM PROBS ENDING THU
EVENING FOR > 6" SNOW ARE 50-80% OVER MUCH OF THE W.
ADIRONDACKS. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW DECREASE OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE DISTURBANCES
AND UPSLOPE COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS WEST/EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVC
CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT FOR ALL SITES. RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND FALLING INTO
A DRY AIR MASS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL ONLY BE A LIMITED IMPACT
ON VISIBILITY FROM THESE SHOWERS, AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAINLY BE
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR KALB
AND KPSF. 2 KFT WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KTS FROM THE S-SW, SO SOME
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SITES THAT HAVE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, MAINLY FOR KPOU AND KPSF.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AND WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MAINLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR SATURDAY,
WITH MORNING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT, WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS
OR STRATOCUMULUS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...27
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