562
FXUS61 KALY 080533
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. COLDER AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A 50-80% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
0.50" OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 921 PM EST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK, WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.
WITH A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SOME SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT AND THE DRY LOW-LEVELS IN PLACE
(DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S) HAS BEEN ALLOWING SOME OF THIS
PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. MRMS SUGGESTS MOST
AREAS HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH,
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE BEEN UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF
AN INCH, ACCORDING TO MRMS ESTIMATES AND NYS MESONET
OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS, MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS, THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN HAS CHANNELED THE FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, ALTHOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN RATHER
LOCALIZED. WITH THE LOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE AREA, WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, LOWS WILL BE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS, ALTHOUGH
SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN
THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A.M. IS SOME NUISANCE
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY JET(35-45 KT AT 850 MB). GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT SO THAT THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP. NBM
STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS, BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHEST
PROBS (30-50%) FOR > 1" OF SNOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, WITH A 10-30% OF > 0.01" ICE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SOME OTHER AREAS FOR POTENTIAL FROZEN PRECIP, SUCH AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION/S. VT WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR MAY LOCK IN (CAD SIGNATURE) INTO SUN A.M. AS THE PRECIP
SPREADS NORTH/EAST. IF CONFIDENCE IN ICE INCREASES, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN BY THE TIME THE
PRECIP ARRIVES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY SUN P.M, AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE TRACKING NE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL NORTH OF I-90 (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S), WITH WARMER READINGS
SOUTH (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S).
MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN LINGERING. IT APPEARS THIS
SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO DRAW IN
ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WHILE THE PRECIP IS OCCURRING, EXCEPT
FOR OVER THE W. ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN
TOWARDS MON MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON MON, WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A DEEP TROUGH STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THE MAIN STORY IS WINTER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE FIRST TIME
EARLY THIS SEASON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE A LARGE/DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -1 TO
-3 STDEV ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL SET UP. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS, A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME LOOKS FAVORED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE
OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES. 72-HR NBM PROBS ENDING THU
EVENING FOR > 6" SNOW ARE 50-80% OVER MUCH OF THE W.
ADIRONDACKS. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW DECREASE OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE DISTURBANCES
AND UPSLOPE COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS WEST/EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THRU 06Z SUN...AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO QUEBEC IS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KGFL PRIOR TO
10Z/SAT. IN THE SHOWERS, SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
TAF SITES IN THE 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE FOR ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-13Z/SAT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BACK TO LOW VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MID PM. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB AFTER 00Z/SUN.
LLWS WAS KEPT IN THE KPOU/KGFL TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 09Z/SAT,
AS THE THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS OF 35-45 KT DECREASE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING BY, AS THE SFC WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK 8-13 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
LATE PM AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS EARLY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07/27
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...15
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