111
FXUS61 KALY 081850
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON, AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COLDER AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN.
DISCUSSION:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE TRACKS
CLOSER. MILD TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL/GLENS FALLS AREA SOUTH AND EAST, AND
45-50 ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AND/OR FALL FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE ACROSS MIDWEST TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, INITIATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION BEFORE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE, AS COLDER AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SW ADIRONDACKS, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A COATING TO AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
MAY EVEN START WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET MIXED IN AS FAR SOUTH AND
EAST AS SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AND SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY
TONIGHT, FARTHER REMOVED FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
BY MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING POCKETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
ALBANY OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE/PASSING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNSET FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
I-87, SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SE VT MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD, COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY AS LOWS FALL BACK IN THESE AREAS INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH MID 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION
TO LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-87. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD
EAST, LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW/SLEET,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN CASE
PRECIPITATION LINGERS EVEN FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW/SLEET TO OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL AFTER INITIAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID/UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION:
LINGERING SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, OTHERWISE WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD WITH
MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND AFFECT THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
WITH SOME EXTENSIONS POSSIBLY INTO THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES, WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. HOWEVER, AS SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH, WIND TRAJECTORIES AND SHEAR MAY
OCCASIONALLY SHIFT AND BREAK UP THE BANDS, WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY, WHEN EVEN VALLEY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S AND SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE 20S. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH FORECAST WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE MITIGATING CEILINGS AND
PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. FAVORED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
CEILINGS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS
WILL FORM WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS, AROUND 25-20 KFT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO ABOUT ~4-5 KFT AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO
THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CATEGORIES ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS
BETWEEN 05-08Z. WHILE KALB/KPOU/KPSF WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
OBSERVE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, KGFL HAS A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AT THE TERMINAL
BEFORE COOL AIR FROM THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCES THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IS A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS ELEMENT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF. FUTURE
ITERATIONS WILL HONE IN ON THE DETAILS TO A GREATER EXTENT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION LINE THAT MAY NOT IMPACT KGFL AT ALL PER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BUT, SEEING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE GLENS
FALLS AREA ARE ON THE COLDER SIDE AND REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR
JUST ABOVE, THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WHICH
WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SNOW.
INTERMITTENT, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 9-13Z
FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF, BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
KGFL. ONCE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN BACK TO RAIN HERE. CEILINGS WILL
RETURN TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AT KGFL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ONCE ANY
SNOW ENDS, AND WILL REMAIN MVFR AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH POSSIBLY
THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z CYCLE. KPOU, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPANNING ABOUT 10-15KT AND GUSTS REACHING 20-25
KT. DECREASING SPEEDS INTO TONIGHT WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...RA...SN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...24/33
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...37
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