669
FXUS61 KALY 090536
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON, AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. COLDER AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 943 PM EST...STALLED SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THIS EVENING
STARTED OUT FAIRLY CLEAR, IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY
THIS EVENING AND NYS MESONET ALREADY SHOWS MANY SPOTS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH 40S ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION. MRMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SOME
PRECIP OVER NORTHERN PA, WITH A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE ACROSS MIDWEST TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, INITIATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION BEFORE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE, AS COLDER AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SW ADIRONDACKS, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A COATING TO AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
MAY EVEN START WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET MIXED IN AS FAR SOUTH AND
EAST AS SARATOGA/GLENS FALLS AND SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY
TONIGHT, FARTHER REMOVED FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
BY MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING POCKETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
ALBANY OUTSIDE OF SOME DRIZZLE/PASSING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNSET FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
I-87, SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SE VT MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD, COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY AS LOWS FALL BACK IN THESE AREAS INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH MID 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION
TO LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-87. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD
EAST, LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW/SLEET,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN CASE
PRECIPITATION LINGERS EVEN FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW/SLEET TO OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL AFTER INITIAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID/UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION:
LINGERING SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, OTHERWISE WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD WITH
MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND AFFECT THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
WITH SOME EXTENSIONS POSSIBLY INTO THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES, WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. HOWEVER, AS SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH, WIND TRAJECTORIES AND SHEAR MAY
OCCASIONALLY SHIFT AND BREAK UP THE BANDS, WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY, WHEN EVEN VALLEY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S AND SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE 20S. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH FORECAST WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST SITES PRIOR TO
12Z/SUN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE BY AROUND 12Z/SUN, MAINLY AT KALB/KGFL, AND HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED WITH A TEMPO. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AND OUT OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-18Z/SUN, THOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS PRIOR TO THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF ANY IFR CIGS DEVELOP,
WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. AFTER 00Z/MON, ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR OR
EVEN IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND COULD BE IN VARIABLE DIRECTIONS, THOUGH MAINLY FROM
THE NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION. A PERIOD OF LLWS COULD
OCCUR AT KPSF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WINDS
AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO 35 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE
WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...RA...SN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-
042-043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...24/33
SHORT TERM...24/27
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...33
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