865
FXUS61 KALY 091925
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BLUSTERY AND
COLD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY, WITH SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EST, CHILLY AND DAMP CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND A
FEW BREAKS OF SUN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WITHIN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, WITH SOME BREAKS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, SHOWERS
ACROSS NJ SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, TEMPS MAY STILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION,
SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, COLDER AIR MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OR A
SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
RISE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S, WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
40S/30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, AND AS COLDER AIR
EXPANDS EAST, SOME CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET COULD OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA CLOSER
TO SUNSET. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. RAIN MAY EVEN END AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WITH ONLY A COATING POSSIBLE MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST AREAS, PEAKING
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY, AND MID
30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH/WEST, THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, AND
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY REACHING 35-45 MPH
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
DISCUSSION:
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
(VETERAN'S DAY), AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
EXPECTED, STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. 13Z NBM INDICATING
24-HOUR PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH ENDING 1 AM WED AT 50-90%
(GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES), THOUGH SIMILAR PROBS
FOR GUSTS >45 MPH AT ~25-65%. SO GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-45 MPH
SEEMS PROBABLE IN THESE AREAS, AND GENERALLY 25-35 MPH
ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 40 FOR MOST AREAS,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER/MID 20S MOST OF TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
NBM PROBS FOR 24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMTS >4" ENDING 7 PM TUESDAY ARE
30-40% ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, THOUGH MUCH LESS
(10-15%) ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COS.
HOWEVER NBM LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING OVERALL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL,
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS IN CASE SOME
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED COATINGS POSSIBLE EVEN IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (1-2") ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS.
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, WITH A FEW INSTANCES POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO VALLEY AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER, OVERALL TRAJECTORIES OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BE
CHANGING AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
WED-THU. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF VARIABLE CEILING HEIGHTS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RESULTING FROM AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THOUGH SOME UNEXPECTED CLEARING, LIKELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING,
HAS LED TO VFR CEILING HEIGHTS AT KPOU AND KPSF, HEIGHTS WILL SOON
LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR THRESHOLDS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. MVFR TO IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD GIVEN AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANTICIPATED PERIODS OF RAIN. TIMING OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS A BIT HARD TO PIN DOWN, GIVEN THEIR SCATTERED NATURE, BUT
ANTICIPATE WET CONDITIONS ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GENERALLY, HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL FORCE IFR CONDITIONS WHILE
THOSE OF A LIGHTER NATURE WILL SEE MVFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KT, OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO START,
BUT WILL TRANSITION LARGELY TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15/24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...37
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page