026
FXUS61 KALY 092336
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BLUSTERY AND
COLD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY, WITH SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 636 PM EST...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK BEHIND THIS BATCH OF PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP DEVELOPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS NEAR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. WHILE A BURST OF MODERATE RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL
BE SEEING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
COLDER AIR MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
TOWARD DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UNINHABITED
WILDERNESS AREAS NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S, WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, AND AS COLDER AIR
EXPANDS EAST, SOME CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET COULD OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA CLOSER
TO SUNSET. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. RAIN MAY EVEN END AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WITH ONLY A COATING POSSIBLE MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST AREAS, PEAKING
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY, AND MID
30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH/WEST, THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, AND
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY REACHING 35-45 MPH
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
DISCUSSION:
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
(VETERAN'S DAY), AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
EXPECTED, STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. 13Z NBM INDICATING
24-HOUR PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH ENDING 1 AM WED AT 50-90%
(GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES), THOUGH SIMILAR PROBS
FOR GUSTS >45 MPH AT ~25-65%. SO GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-45 MPH
SEEMS PROBABLE IN THESE AREAS, AND GENERALLY 25-35 MPH
ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 40 FOR MOST AREAS,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER/MID 20S MOST OF TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
NBM PROBS FOR 24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMTS >4" ENDING 7 PM TUESDAY ARE
30-40% ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, THOUGH MUCH LESS
(10-15%) ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COS.
HOWEVER NBM LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING OVERALL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL,
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS IN CASE SOME
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED COATINGS POSSIBLE EVEN IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (1-2") ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS.
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, WITH A FEW INSTANCES POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO VALLEY AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER, OVERALL TRAJECTORIES OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BE
CHANGING AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
WED-THU. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TAF SITES HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING,
WITH IFR/LIFR AT KPOU/KALB, MVFR AT KPSF AND VFR AT KGFL. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. BEHIND THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR, ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WITH MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH STEADY PRECIP AFTER
SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH CEILINGS STARTING TO RISE. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR, MAINLY FOR KPOU AND KALB BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITY FOR KGFL/KPSF. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15/24
SHORT TERM...24/27
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...27
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