831
FXUS61 KALY 100545
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BLUSTERY AND
COLD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY, WITH SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 636 PM EST...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK BEHIND THIS BATCH OF PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP DEVELOPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS NEAR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. WHILE A BURST OF MODERATE RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL
BE SEEING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
COLDER AIR MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
TOWARD DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UNINHABITED
WILDERNESS AREAS NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S, WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, AND AS COLDER AIR
EXPANDS EAST, SOME CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET COULD OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA CLOSER
TO SUNSET. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. RAIN MAY EVEN END AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WITH ONLY A COATING POSSIBLE MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST AREAS, PEAKING
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY, AND MID
30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH/WEST, THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, AND
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY REACHING 35-45 MPH
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
DISCUSSION:
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
(VETERAN'S DAY), AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
EXPECTED, STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. 13Z NBM INDICATING
24-HOUR PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH ENDING 1 AM WED AT 50-90%
(GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES), THOUGH SIMILAR PROBS
FOR GUSTS >45 MPH AT ~25-65%. SO GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-45 MPH
SEEMS PROBABLE IN THESE AREAS, AND GENERALLY 25-35 MPH
ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 40 FOR MOST AREAS,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER/MID 20S MOST OF TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
NBM PROBS FOR 24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMTS >4" ENDING 7 PM TUESDAY ARE
30-40% ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, THOUGH MUCH LESS
(10-15%) ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COS.
HOWEVER NBM LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING OVERALL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL,
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS IN CASE SOME
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED COATINGS POSSIBLE EVEN IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (1-2") ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS.
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, WITH A FEW INSTANCES POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO VALLEY AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER, OVERALL TRAJECTORIES OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BE
CHANGING AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
WED-THU. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AS OF 12:40 AM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS RANGE
FROM LIFR AT ALB/POU TO MVFR AT GFL/PSF. OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS, WILL
SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS. RAIN ENDS BETWEEN
11-13Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR POSSIBLE ONCE RAIN ENDS,
ESPECIALLY AT ALB/GFL, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. FOR ALB/GFL, MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS. FOR POU/PSF, EXPECTING MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, AND
PREVAILING IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS COME TO AND END DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT GFL/PSF FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. ONCE PRECIP ENDS, EXPECTING
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING AT AROUND 5 KT
OR LESS, THEN BECOME MORE W/NW FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. W/NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT (10-15 KT
AT ALB/PSF) WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH AT GFL/POU AFTER
00-01Z THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT ALB/PSF THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15/24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...35
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