576
FXUS61 KALY 101802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 645 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY
EAST OF I-87 CONTINUES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
PLACE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT IN THE
22Z/MON TO 02Z/TUE TIME FRAME BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE 3-KM HRRR AND THE NAMNEST. WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO BTV TO
MAKE THESE CHANGES FOR A SLUSHY COATING TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
BELOW 1000 FT IN ELEVATION AND MAYBE 1-2" OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS.
SYNOPSIS
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY
REACH/EXCEED 40 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES ON TUESDAY.
AS OF 155 AM EST...A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHWEST
NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING. RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK IN SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG. COLDER
AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL NEAR FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
DACKS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE PCPN ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CYCLONE
WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT DURING THE DAY, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
MAINE BY THE EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
DACKS MAY BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE WITH COATINGS TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND
EVEN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS BY NIGHTFALL
OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL PEAK
EARLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND THEN STEADY OR FALL IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE EASTWARD WITH LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S BY NIGHTFALL OVER THE REGION.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT. IT WILL BE BRISK MON NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. LOCATION WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MAY GET A
DUSTING TO COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WITH 1-2" IN THE
WESTERN DACKS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS MAY GET
A COATING TO AN INCH. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 20S WITH TEENS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THE H500 CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW MOVES OVER UPSTATE NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35+ MPH. THE NBM
24-HR MAX WIND GUSTS (QMD) GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 35-90%
PROBABILITIES ENDING 06Z/WED OF PEAK GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH OR
GREATER IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT, NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE, WE ARE NOT SUPER CONFIDENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL BE ACHIEVED. FORECAST HAS MAINLY 25-35 MPH GUSTS USING THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE AS A STARTING POINT. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF A
DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES WITH ANY BANDS PIVOTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS. A BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD DAY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN THE VALLEYS. WIND CHILLS OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS
TUE-TUE NIGHT FOR HERKIMER COUNTY ARE 2-4" NORTH OF THE I-90 AND
1-3" CLOSER TO IT. NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY YET. THE
24-HR NBM PROBS FOR 4" OR GREATER OF SNOW ENDING 12Z/WED ARE
ONLY 25-40% FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
FOR AN ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO FOR WED. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS SOME WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH MORE
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS.
TEMPS MODIFY SOME...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO UPPER
40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWFALL CONTINUES INTO WED NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WED-WED NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN DACKS,
SOUTHERN GREENS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3". LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
DISCUSSION: LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION
REMAINING IN A COLD-ADVECTION REGIME WITH LOW-LEVEL W/NW FLOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROUGH TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE
LAKE EFFECT ARE THE WESTERN ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AS WELL. THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY THANKS TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WINDS FRIDAY SHOULD BE
WEAKER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INFLICTS LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND MISTY CONDITIONS. THE KENX
RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN MAINTAINING LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN, OR REMAIN RAIN IN
THE CASE OF KPOU, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PELLETS AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY, BUT SLIPPERY RUNWAY SURFACES CAN BE EXPECTED BASED ON
THE ANTICIPATED COMBINATION OF RAIN, SNOW, AND POSSIBLE SNOW
PELLETS (SLEET).
WHILE TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, GENERALLY THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN 20-21Z,
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z. IT SHOULD BE A BRIEF TRANSITION WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY AT KGFL AND A RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX
WITHIN THESE TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF. THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL AT
THESE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 22/23Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 00-02Z. DURING
THIS TIME, THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IFR/LIFR WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. KPOU, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD HOLD FIRM AT
IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS HERE TO
MVFR, BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY AT KPSF
FROM ABOUT 10-18Z. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR EAST AND
SOUTH AS KGFL AND KALB RESPECTIVELY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-18Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST
IS LOW, HOWEVER, AS IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE
LAKE EFFECT WILL REACH. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN
FUTURE ITERATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD FORCE CONDITIONS
BACK TO IFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z PERIOD WILL BEGIN VARIABLE AT
SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
GUSTY TOMORROW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 40S
FOR VALLEY AREAS, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 BOTH NIGHTS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A N AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SO, SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S WITH THE SFC
HIGH OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE LONG LEAD
TIME AND EXPECTED CONVOLUTED UPPER FLOW PATTERN. TO OUR EAST, AN
OMEGA BLOCK WILL SET UP NEAR/WEST OF GREENLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CONUS. IF THESE DISTURBANCES REMAIN SEPARATE THEN WE
COULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE.
HOWEVER, IF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE SLOWER AND PHASE WI.UPDATE...
AS OF 645 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY
EAST OF I-87 CONTINUES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
PLACE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT IN THE
22Z/MON TO 02Z/TUE TIME FRAME BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE 3-KM HRRR AND THE NAMNEST. WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO BTV TO
MAKE THESE CHANGES FOR A SLUSHY COATING TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
BELOW 1000 FT IN ELEVATION AND MAYBE 1-2" OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS.TH EACH OTHER, THEN ANY RESULTING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL PLAY OUT.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INFLICTS LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND MISTY CONDITIONS. THE KENX
RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN MAINTAINING LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN, OR REMAIN RAIN IN
THE CASE OF KPOU, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PELLETS AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY, BUT SLIPPERY RUNWAY SURFACES CAN BE EXPECTED BASED ON
THE ANTICIPATED COMBINATION OF RAIN, SNOW, AND POSSIBLE SNOW
PELLETS (SLEET).
WHILE TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, GENERALLY THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN
20-21Z, LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z. IT SHOULD BE A BRIEF
TRANSITION WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY AT KGFL AND A
RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WITHIN THESE TIMES AT KALB AND
KPSF. THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL AT THESE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
22/23Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 00-02Z. DURING THIS TIME, THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IFR/LIFR WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
KPOU, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD HOLD FIRM AT IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS HERE TO
MVFR, BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY AT
KPSF FROM ABOUT 10-18Z. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AND SOUTH AS KGFL AND KALB RESPECTIVELY, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-18Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST IS LOW, HOWEVER, AS IT IS UNCLEAR JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE LAKE EFFECT WILL REACH. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE ITERATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD FORCE CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE 18Z PERIOD WILL BEGIN VARIABLE AT SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT. A
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...37
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