464
FXUS61 KALY 101855
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW TOWARDS DARK. BLUSTERY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- WINDS GUST OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
RADAR AND OBS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND
THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST, TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE NEAR
THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION PRECIP
ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM THE E. CATSKILLS,
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES NORTH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF POCKETS OF SLEET ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH A MODEST
WARM LAYER ALOFT WITH COLD ADVECTION BENEATH. THIS COULD BE THE
FIRST COATING OF (WET) SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MANY AREAS,
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOULD MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES IN THE
VALLEYS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS AND S.
GREENS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2" ON ALL SURFACES THOUGH. COLDER AIR
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-8 PM AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
AREA. A DEVELOPING NW BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
ONCE W-NW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH LAKE-AIR T DIFFERENTIALS YIELDING MODERATE LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. A 290 DEGREE TRAJECTORY IN THE MIXED LAYER
FAVORS SNOW BANDS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE W. ADIRONDACKS. INITIALLY THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN PART OF THE AREA, BUT
THEN AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TO ~750 MB AND
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN, SOME NARROW LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAY MAKE
IT INTO PARTS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES BY TUE
AFTERNOON. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING, UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
S. GREENS AS WELL.
W-NW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE COMMON IN
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS, E.
CATSKILLS, CAPITAL DISTRICT, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH. COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40F.
MIXED LAYER WINDS THEN BACK FROM 290 TO 240 DEGREES FROM TUE
EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS
BACK NORTH INTO THE W. ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ~1-3". OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT < 1" EXCEPT OVER THE S. GREENS,
WHERE 2-4" COULD ACCUMULATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY AGAIN TUE NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND
30F. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WITHING THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS TUE WITH GUSTS OF MAINLY 20-30 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU, WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO A W-NW DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MAINLY RAIN OR
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEYS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY DON'T LOOK AS COLD AS TUE-WED, SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. FLOW BECOMES NW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED NW CYCLONIC FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY LOOKS TO BUILDS IN BY SAT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE RETURNING ALTHOUGH WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. TRANQUIL WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG THOUGH, AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION SUN
INTO MON. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP (INCLUDING POSSIBLE ICE)
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TRACK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INFLICTS LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND MISTY CONDITIONS. THE KENX
RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
IN MAINTAINING LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN, OR REMAIN RAIN IN
THE CASE OF KPOU, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PELLETS AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF.
ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY, BUT SLIPPERY RUNWAY SURFACES CAN BE EXPECTED BASED ON
THE ANTICIPATED COMBINATION OF RAIN, SNOW, AND POSSIBLE SNOW
PELLETS (SLEET).
WHILE TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, GENERALLY THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN
20-21Z, LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z. IT SHOULD BE A BRIEF
TRANSITION WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY AT KGFL AND A
RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WITHIN THESE TIMES AT KALB AND
KPSF. THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL AT THESE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
22/23Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 00-02Z. DURING THIS TIME, THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IFR/LIFR WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
KPOU, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD HOLD FIRM AT IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS HERE TO
MVFR, BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY AT
KPSF FROM ABOUT 10-18Z. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR
EAST AND SOUTH AS KGFL AND KALB RESPECTIVELY, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-18Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST IS LOW, HOWEVER, AS IT IS UNCLEAR JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE LAKE EFFECT WILL REACH. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE ITERATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SHOULD FORCE CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE 18Z PERIOD WILL BEGIN VARIABLE AT SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT. A
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 10 KT BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07/15
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37
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