445
FXUS61 KALY 110523
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW TOWARDS DARK. BLUSTERY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- WINDS GUST OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
RADAR AND OBS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND
THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST, TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE NEAR
THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION PRECIP
ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM THE E. CATSKILLS,
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES NORTH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF POCKETS OF SLEET ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH A MODEST
WARM LAYER ALOFT WITH COLD ADVECTION BENEATH. THIS COULD BE THE
FIRST COATING OF (WET) SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MANY AREAS,
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOULD MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES IN THE
VALLEYS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS AND S.
GREENS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2" ON ALL SURFACES THOUGH. COLDER AIR
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-8 PM AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
AREA. A DEVELOPING NW BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
ONCE W-NW FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH LAKE-AIR T DIFFERENTIALS YIELDING MODERATE LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. A 290 DEGREE TRAJECTORY IN THE MIXED LAYER
FAVORS SNOW BANDS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE W. ADIRONDACKS. INITIALLY THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN PART OF THE AREA, BUT
THEN AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TO ~750 MB AND
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN, SOME NARROW LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAY MAKE
IT INTO PARTS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES BY TUE
AFTERNOON. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING, UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
S. GREENS AS WELL.
W-NW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE COMMON IN
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS, E.
CATSKILLS, CAPITAL DISTRICT, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH. COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40F.
MIXED LAYER WINDS THEN BACK FROM 290 TO 240 DEGREES FROM TUE
EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS
BACK NORTH INTO THE W. ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ~1-3". OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT < 1" EXCEPT OVER THE S. GREENS,
WHERE 2-4" COULD ACCUMULATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY AGAIN TUE NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND
30F. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WITHING THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS TUE WITH GUSTS OF MAINLY 20-30 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU, WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO A W-NW DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MAINLY RAIN OR
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEYS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY DON'T LOOK AS COLD AS TUE-WED, SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. FLOW BECOMES NW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED NW CYCLONIC FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY LOOKS TO BUILDS IN BY SAT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE RETURNING ALTHOUGH WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. TRANQUIL WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG THOUGH, AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION SUN
INTO MON. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP (INCLUDING POSSIBLE ICE)
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TRACK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM VFR
TO MVFR WITH BKN TO OVC CIGS BETWEEN 2000-3500 FT. EXPECTING THIS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS AT PSF AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE VFR CIGS
AT POU. THEN, SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARDS ALB AND PSF, WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
DEVELOPING AT PSF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS AT PSF AND
KEPT THE PROB30 AT ALB FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE, BUT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW SHOWERS AT GFL HAVE REMOVED THE PROB30
THERE IN FAVOR OF JUST A VCSH GROUP. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT POU. THE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALB/GFL/POU
AND MVFR CIGS AT PSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15-25KT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT. A FEW GUSTS OF 35-40 KT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT ALB/PSF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET, LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 2-4Z THAT
GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW 15KT. WINDS THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AND
REMAIN AT 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07/15
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...35
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