069
FXUS61 KALY 121739
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHILLY
WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WE GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO
PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: AS OF 1:55 AM EDT...GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR
REGION REMAINING UNDER PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW. AN SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO OUR WEST OVER/SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES, SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS LEADING TO A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST IN A COUPLE HOURS, AND EXIT TO THE
EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE AM COMMUTE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LOOK QUITE LIGHT, WITH A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADKS. A FEW HALF INCH TO 1 INCH
AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS, HOWEVER, WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NBM GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WON'T FALL MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S FOR THE ADKS
TO MID 30S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
ONCE SNOW SHOWERS END THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS
YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS
LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING, WHEN A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WE HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR NOW, BUT
CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW 3-4" REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TO 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS. THEREFORE, VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN
RAIN WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEHIND THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE, A LONGER
FETCH OF LOW-LEVLE NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO OUR
REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION
DEVELOPING. THE RESULTING LAKE EFFECT BAND LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND BE ORIENTED PRIMARILY OVER THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/CATSKILLS, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EVEN SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CATSKILLS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS BAND, BUT DOWNSLOPING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST. NBM GUIDANCE DID
NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND WELL, SO BLENDED IN MORE RGEM/NAM
GUIDANCE TO INCREASE POPS/QPF UNDER THE BAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO 30S WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AGAIN.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS.
ONCE AGAIN, VALLEY AREAS WILL THEREFORE SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP RATHER THAN ALL SNOW. THURSDAY WILL ALSO
LIKELY FEATURE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE, BUT FLOW TRAJECTORIES VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DISRUPT THE BAND. SO, ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S,
WITH 30S TO 40S ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
- AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION:
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP, SO WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS. WITH MORE CLEARING AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, LOWS DROP INTO THE 10S AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR AREAS THAT
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST AS A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM CANADA TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING SETUP AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WITH A COLD ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS, MIXED PRECIP IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD START AS
PLAIN RAIN, WITH A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, IT LOOKS TO BECOME COLD
AND BREEZY AGAIN WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 5-10 KNOTS, EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS AT
POU. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS NOTED, WITH MORE UPSTREAM
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
HIGH PROBABILITIES (HOURLY VALUES OF 60-90% THROUGH 04Z) OF MVFR
CEILING CONTINUE AT GFL WHERE CLOUD BASES REMAIN BELOW 3000 FEET. A
RETURN OF LIGHT, WET SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 23Z IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
A FRONT, WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER ABOUT
03Z, EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS VFR CEILINGS AS SHARPLY DRIER, WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT LOWER TOWARDS THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MODEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS OF WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PER DIURNAL MIXING AFTER 12Z.
OTHER SITES, CURRENTLY WITH VFR CEILINGS, ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST ALB HAS A RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCE OF LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION AND WITH TEMPERATURES HIGH
ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
FORWARD. POU REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. IN CONTRAST, HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC AT PSF
SOONER THAN PROBALILISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST, AS CLOUD BASES
ARE CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF EXPECTATIONS JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET. INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SUPPORT
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THERE BEFORE
IMPROVING AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. LIKELY RA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
LIKELY RA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
CHANCE OF RA...SN. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...WFO BTV
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