576
FXUS61 KALY 121911
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY WEATHER AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WHILE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. DRIER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: AS OF 1:55 PM EDT...GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR
REGION STILL IS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT. THE MOST
POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SUCH THAT UPWIND LAKE BANDS ARE
BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW DISRUPTING ANY KIND OF BANDS TODAY, PRECIPITATION
RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN OUR AREA, WITH AN ESTIMATED INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES,
WHILE LIGHT RAIN OR WET, NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW, IS COMMON
ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPWIND LAKE BANDS WILL TEND TO ANGLE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING THE CATSKILLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL IN EXCESS
OF 4" IS LIKELY WITH THIS BAND THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. PRIOR
TO THE BAND SETTLING IN THIS AREA, A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT AREAS SUCH AS ALONG
I-90 WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIMITED IMPACTS.
ONE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW-GENERATED LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH RELATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIPITATION RATES. GENERALLY COLDER CONDITIONS
TOMORROW NIGHT, INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, COULD LEAD
TO ICY CONDITIONS OF WET ROADWAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
- TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS SPED UP, WITH A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO RAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A
30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION:
FOLLOWING A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER TO
END THE WEEK, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL
INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, WHILE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM MORE SLOWLY. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES
TO POINT TO A COLD RAIN WITH GRADUAL WARMING, SUCH THAT POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET WILL TEND BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT WHEN PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ARE HIGHER. SO FOR NOW, IT
DOES NOT LIKE LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
AS ANY ICE ACCRETION WOULD BE HAZARDOUS GIVEN THE COLD
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE TREND TOWARDS FASTER DEPARTURE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SUNDAY MORNING IS LEADING TO A COLDER AND WINDIER DAY FOR
SUNDAY. NOTED THAT THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN PARTICULAR FOR POTENTIAL
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IS FAVORED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH LESSER CHANCES
THEREAFTER. NO ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY NIGHT EVENT AS LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE UNLIKELY TO PASS NEAR THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 5-10 KNOTS, EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS AT
POU. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS NOTED, WITH MORE UPSTREAM
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
HIGH PROBABILITIES (HOURLY VALUES OF 60-90% THROUGH 04Z) OF MVFR
CEILING CONTINUE AT GFL WHERE CLOUD BASES REMAIN BELOW 3000 FEET. A
RETURN OF LIGHT, WET SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 23Z IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
A FRONT, WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER ABOUT
03Z, EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS VFR CEILINGS AS SHARPLY DRIER, WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT LOWER TOWARDS THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MODEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS OF WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PER DIURNAL MIXING AFTER 12Z.
OTHER SITES, CURRENTLY WITH VFR CEILINGS, ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST ALB HAS A RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCE OF LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION AND WITH TEMPERATURES HIGH
ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
FORWARD. POU REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. IN CONTRAST, HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC AT PSF
SOONER THAN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST, AS CLOUD
BASES ARE CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF EXPECTATIONS JUST ABOVE
3000 FEET. INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
SUPPORT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD THERE BEFORE
IMPROVING AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. LIKELY RA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
LIKELY RA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
CHANCE OF RA...SN. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...WFO BTV
LONG TERM...WFO BTV
AVIATION...WFO BTV
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