947
FXUS61 KALY 201815
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND
SOUTH OF ALBANY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 20S). CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 50S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL ONLY
MENTION 20-30% POPS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90. HIGHEST POPS ~30% WILL BE NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT,
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A NW BREEZE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY. TRANQUIL/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD WITH RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN TURNING COLDER
AND BREEZY BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION:
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT, MAINLY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON INTO MON NIGHT, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT, AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH/WEST, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP, WITH NBM PROBS
SHOWING 20-40% FOR > 0.50" SO IT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HEAVY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS. THE PARENT CYCLONE
LOOKS TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WED, SO OUR REGION MAY
GET INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WED P.M.
IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN WED
NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN SOME FAVORED AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
06 UTC/21. THEN, A CLIPPER PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL ELICIT
A SOUTHERLY WIND AND USHER IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WE THEREFORE
INCLUDING A MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 10 - 14
UTC. AFTER 14-15 UTC, THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND
ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT GFL, ALB AND POU. PSF LOOKS TO
HANG ONTO THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 14/15 UTC THEN BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 5-7KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...31
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