175
FXUS61 KALY 260518
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND A COLD FRONT. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY, AS SOME HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 228 PM EST...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAINFALL BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND A DAMPENING OUT SHORT-WAVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. A
NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KT AT 850 HPA WILL FOCUS THE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND DUE TO WET
BULB COOLING WITH LOWS 40-45F IN THE VALLEYS AND MID AND UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR IN SPOTS.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY TWO TENTHS TO A HALF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TOMORROW...THE FORECAST AREA BREAKS INTO A WARM SECTOR, AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL
BE BREEZY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A FEW GUSTY
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCT WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. HIGH WILL
RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN DACKS.
A QUICK COATING TO HALF INCH OF WET SNOW MAY OCCUR THERE. BRISK
CONDITIONS OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH LOWS FALLING BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH SOME 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THANKSGIVING...LOOKS COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
12-25 MPH WITH SOME GUST 30-40 MPH. A CLOSED/COMPACT H500 LOW
WILL SET-UP OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE HOLIDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, W-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE
AND SOUTHERN VT WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LONG AXIS LAKE BAND
FORMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PM. SOME THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS MAY REACH EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BY NIGHTFALL.
TOTAL ACCUMS MAY REACH 1-2" NORTH AND WEST OF OLD FORGE BEFORE
THE REAL LAKE EFFECT CRANKS UP. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND MIGHT REACH THEIR PEAK BEFORE
NOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINS AT 4 PM FOR
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER STORM WATCH THU NIGHT UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A 50% CONFIDENCE OF
REACHING >7" OF SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 28.
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (30
TO 60% OF >4" SNOW OVER 72 HOURS) RESULTING FROM UPSLOPE AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INCLUDING SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (30-70% >40
MPH) ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL
REGION, NORTH/CENTRAL TACONICS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY. THE LAKE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO
INITIALLY HAS A SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY AND THEN
PIVOTS OR TRANSITIONS TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSITORY LAKEBAND COULD IMPACT THE
MORNING DRIVERS OUT FOR THE AFTER THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SALES. WE
MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES, THOUGH WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY YET. THE WATCH
SUPPORTS 7" OR MORE OF SNOW AT A POINT IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THU LATE THROUGH FRI. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE BAND
MAY LIMIT HIGHER TOTALS. HOWEVER, A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH A WELL ALIGNED BAND DUE TO MODERATE-EXTREME LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY (SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO. AND MAYBE
FULTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES). RIGHT NOW, 6-12" IS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
AND 2-6" OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST AND ALSO OVER TH EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
SOUTHERN GREENS MAY GET UPSLOPE SNOW TALLIES OF A FEW INCHES. IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM WAS USED FOR
WINDS AND GUSTS THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AND GUSTS 40 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, AND THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION BASED ON THE LREFS.
THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT
BECOMES NARROW MULTI-BANDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A DRY AND VERY
COLD DAY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS FRI NIGHT INTO THE TEENS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 20S OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COLD
CONDITIONS SAT PM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS MODIFY TO SEASONABLE
READINGS ON SUNDAY, SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
1500 FT IN THE PM. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OVER THE
WESTERN DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL FINISH THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COOL AND
MOIST AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS IS KEEPING PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS
AROUND. WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAINFALL IS
ENDING ACROSS THE REGION, THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST AROUND
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO
MVFR AT TIMES, MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE IFR/LIFR, WITH CEILINGS
IN THE 400-900 FT RANGE AND VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY DOWN AROUND
2SM THANKS TO MIST/SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE CALM AT KGFL/KPOU, BUT
SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR KPSF AND KALB. 2 KFT
WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 30-40 KTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, SO
SOME LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD, THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THEY WILL START OUT
AT 400-900 FT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEY SHOULD REACH IMPROVE
TO 1200-1500 FT FOR MOST SITES (ALTHOUGH KGFL MAY CONTINUE TO
STAY IN THE IFR RANGE AS THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT TOTALLY LIFT
NORTH OF THERE UNTIL LATE). SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND FAIRLY BRIEF, SO WILL MAINLY ADDRESS
WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS FOR ALL
SITES.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THERE MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE A QUICK
BURSTS OF LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY FOR KGFL, KALB AND KPSF. BEHIND
THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL SITES, AS WESTERLY
WINDS ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WHILE KPSF MAY
REMAIN MVFR, THE OTHER VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CEILINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15
KTS. ANY PRECIP WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...27
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