801
FXUS61 KALY 130541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 645 PM EST, SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT,
WITH SOME FLURRIES ALSO EXTENDING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TOMORROW MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 BEFORE A CLIPPER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST GRAZES AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 WITH A PERIOD SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THEN, COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS,
LITCHFIELD AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY, INTO PARTS OF THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION:
WINDY AND CHILLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ASOS AND NYS MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35MPH AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, IT FEELS MORE LIKE MID
TEENS TO MID-20S. CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW HAVE MAINTAINED LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY BUT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
ONLY AROUND 800HPA, SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY HAS REMAINED LIGHT. AS
WE APPROACH SUNSET, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX AND HELPING TO IMPROVE THE "FEEL-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES. THE INCOMING RIDGE WILL ALSO SEND THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ALLOW
THEM TO WEAKEN. OVERALL, ONLY EXPECTING COATINGS TO 1 INCH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT, EXPECTING
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
TOMORROW STARTS OFF DRY BUT THEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST, A PERIOD OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ENSUES. WHILE
SKIES WILL TREND CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE BEST FORCING IS POSITIONED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90
WHERE WE HAVE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
STARTING 15 - 18 UTC AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT
GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK FORCING/MOISTURE, TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS AGAIN LIMITED TO COATING TO 1 INCH. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO UPPER 20 TO MID-30S.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDES
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT
AGAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, A LAKE EFFECT
BAND LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, MAINLY NORTH OF
ROUTE 28. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES LOOKS TO BE 0.5-1" AT TIMES, THE
DURATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS SHORT WHICH WILL KEEP TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING AMOUNTS
RANGING 2 TO 4 INCHES.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE CLOSED PARENT LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AS THE TWO PHASE, THE CLOSED LOW
QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AND DIGS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS IT BECOMES
NEUTRALLY TILTED. RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE SFC LOW'S FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE
EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING ~140KT JET WILL
HELP INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS POSITIONED
WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ITS PRECIPITATION
SHIELD LOOKS TO GRAZE THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS, WESTERN MA AND NW CT. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD
IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO NEAR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH SO THERE REMAINS A MODERATE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
ONLY A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.25" SO THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR REASONABLE HIGH-END SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE NEAR 3 INCHES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORING
0.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SOUTH TO NORTH SNOWFALL
GRADIENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DECREASING HEADING TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1 INCH. THE WINTER WEATHER SEVERITY INDEX
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ONLY "MINOR" IMPACTS FOCUSED IN FAR
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY BUT GIVEN THE COLD
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT SNOW ARRIVES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE ON ANY UNTREATED
SFC LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL. SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING BY 12 - 15 UTC WITH NW CT
LIKELY THE LAST TO SEE SNOW END. BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS TURN BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
QUICKLY ENSUING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL NOT RISE OUT
OF THE 20S AND WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25MPH, IT WILL FEEL EVEN
CHILLIER IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND MILDER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN IMPRESSIVE ~1040HPA HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WITH OUR DEPARTING COASTAL
LOW OFF SHORE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIRECTING A MUCH
COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST (850HPA ISOTHERMS 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE NAEFS), CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN QUITE COLD SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. IN FACT,
THERE IS GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BELOW 15 DEGREES. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING A BIT
ELEVATED, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND CHILL VALUES BUT AS OF
SNOW, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO EXCEED 25 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY, THE WIND FINALLY
DIMINISHES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
ANOTHER CLIPPER PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LEADING TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT LACKLUSTER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LOW. A WARMING TREND FINALLY ENSUES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INDUCING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO
EXCEED 40 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN POTENT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND GIVEN THE MILD AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT P-TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN, AT LEAST
TO START. HOWEVER, WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THERMAL PROFILES AND
ANY POTENTIAL P-TYPE CHALLENGES DEPENDING ON HOW THE INLAND
TRACK LOW TRACKS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT
THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 16-21Z/SAT
OR SO, MAINLY TO KGFL/KALB/KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS COULD OCCUR. BRIEF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS UPDATE. MIXED VFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU/KPSF AS THIS
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THESE SITES AFTER
00Z/SUN. IF SNOW BECOMES STEADY ENOUGH, VSBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 00Z/SUN AS WELL. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE NEAR KALB, BUT KEPT THIS TAF DRY FOR NOW.
VARIABLE WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY, MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF. WIND WILL THEN
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...33
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