002
FXUS61 KALY 131944
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 BEFORE A
A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAINLY FOR THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY, LITCHFIELD HILL, WESTERN MA, AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TACONICS TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY.
THEN, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIPPERY TRAVEL EXPECTED IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS, WESTERN MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHERE THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION:
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE. LATEST REGIONAL SHOWS
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW/SNOW SQUALL TRACKING EASTWARD OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EASTWARD. WHILE UPSTREAM NYS MESONET
CAMERAS SHOW MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND, HIGH
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS BAND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
INTO HERKIMER COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, WE MAINTAIN LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 00 UTC TO ACCOUNT
OF A PERIOD OF SNOW FROM THIS WEAKENING BAND. MEANWHILE, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW AND SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO PHASE THIS
EVENING, STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
THE EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOW SHIELD ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NJ
COAST.
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM THE INCOMING SNOWFALL TONIGHT REMAINS
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH IN PA/MD/NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SNOW SHIELD INTENSIFYING JUST AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TACONICS, NW CT AND WESTERN MA. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY SO EXPECTING SNOW TO BECOME STEADY THIS EVENING BY 02
TO 05 UTC AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF I-90 WITH SNOW TURNING BRIEFLY
MODERATE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SNOW LIGHTENS UP AND EXITS BY 11 - 14
UTC FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOST
OF THE FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS IN THE 700 - 300 HPA LAYER WHICH
COINCIDES WITH THE DGZ TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A LIGHT AND FLUFFY
SNOW WITH SLRS 15-18:1. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS
FROM THE NBM RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.2 TO 0.3";
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT RANGING 1 TO 3 INCHES AND MAINLY BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL SPAN FROM THE TACONICS,
LITCHFIELD HILLS, WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE ELEVATIONS 1000" AND HIGHER CAN SEE 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN QPF AMOUNTS, SNOWFALL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO
TRENDED UPWARDS A BIT WITH A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH A 10 TO 30%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TREND
DOWNWARDS HEADING TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THE FORECAST
SHOWS COATINGS TO 1" AND THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOW.
SNOW ENDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE PARENT TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION SENDING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25MPH WILL
MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 20S. GIVEN SUCH A
CHILLY AIR MASS AND THE BREEZY WINDS, IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER
AND MORE LIKE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING
MAINLY RAIN, LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
COMING SOON.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF I-90 WHICH CAN LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT GFL, ALB AND PSF THROUGH 21 UTC. POU HAS
DROPPED TO MVFR CIGS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THEN, SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND WE IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF SNOW FOR POU AND PSF
STARTING 02 TO 05 UTC RESULTING IN IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS AT POU
AND PSF, RESPECTIVELY. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT PSF SHOULD A STEADIER PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOP MAINLY
FROM 05 - 09 UTC SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT POU WHERE SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE STEADIER. ALB AND ESPECIALLY GFL WILL LIKELY BE JUST
NORTH OF THE STEADIEST SNOW SO CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STEADY SNOW EXTEND FURTHER NORTH
THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, ALB COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS MAINLY 05 - 09 UTC TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXITS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 11 TO 14
UTC BUT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT
PSF THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. POU SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR ONCE THE SNOW EXITS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY
14-15 UTC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5-10KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...31
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