825
FXUS61 KALY 140531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 630 PM EST, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SW ADIRONDACKS AND WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEEMS TO
BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUD PROCESSES AS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN ABOVE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
STEADIER SNOW SHOULD THEN DEVELOP TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AS MID LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS.
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAINLY FOR THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY, LITCHFIELD HILLS, WESTERN MA, THE TACONICS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY. THEN,
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIPPERY TRAVEL EXPECTED IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS,
WESTERN MA, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHERE THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS.
DISCUSSION:
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS A CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE. LATEST REGIONAL SHOWS
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW/SNOW SQUALL TRACKING EASTWARD OFF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES EASTWARD. WHILE UPSTREAM NYS MESONET
CAMERAS SHOW MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND, HIGH
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS BAND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
INTO HERKIMER COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, WE MAINTAIN LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 00 UTC TO ACCOUNT
OF A PERIOD OF SNOW FROM THIS WEAKENING BAND. MEANWHILE, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW AND SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO PHASE THIS
EVENING, STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
THE EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOW SHIELD ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NJ
COAST.
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM THE INCOMING SNOWFALL TONIGHT REMAINS
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH IN PA/MD/NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SNOW SHIELD INTENSIFYING JUST AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TACONICS, NW CT AND WESTERN MA. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
BOUNDARY SO EXPECTING SNOW TO BECOME STEADY THIS EVENING BY 02
TO 05 UTC AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OF I-90 WITH SNOW TURNING BRIEFLY
MODERATE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SNOW LIGHTENS UP AND EXITS BY 11 - 14
UTC FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOST
OF THE FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS IN THE 700 - 300 HPA LAYER WHICH
COINCIDES WITH THE DGZ TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A LIGHT AND FLUFFY
SNOW WITH SLRS 15-18:1. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS
FROM THE NBM RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.2 TO 0.3";
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT RANGING 1 TO 3 INCHES AND MAINLY BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL SPAN FROM THE TACONICS,
LITCHFIELD HILLS, WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE ELEVATIONS 1000" AND HIGHER CAN SEE 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN QPF AMOUNTS, SNOWFALL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO
TRENDED UPWARDS A BIT WITH A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH A 10 TO 30%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TREND
DOWNWARDS HEADING TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THE FORECAST
SHOWS COATINGS TO 1" AND THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOW.
SNOW ENDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE PARENT TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION SENDING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25MPH WILL
MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 20S. GIVEN SUCH A
CHILLY AIR MASS AND THE BREEZY WINDS, IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER
AND MORE LIKE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, MAINLY
RAIN, LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE FRIGID DUE THE ADVECTIVE COLD WITH
NEARLY 80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP UNDER 10 DEGREES
REGIONWIDE. GIVEN THE CONTINUED BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
BE QUITE LOW REACHING +5F TO -15F WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE IF ANY REGION REACHES THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BUT AS OF NOW, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MEETING THE CRITERIA IN WESTERN MA WHERE THE THRESHOLD IS
-15F. MONDAY REMAINS CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S REGIONWIDE. A CONTINUED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING BREEZY GUSTS AGAIN NEAR
15-25MPH WILL MAKE FOR QUITE COLD FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT MOISTURE IS SEVERELY
LACKING AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW SHOWERS WEAKEN AS THEY SPILL
INTO EASTERN NY. THUS POPS WERE CAPPED AT CHANCE. HOWEVER, LOW
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST, INDUCING
A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AS FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED DOWN THE LONG
FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE BAND BECOMES DIRECTED INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE WE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY BUT THE BAND LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY, WEAKENING THE BAND.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK BEFORE WE TREND
MILDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. GIVEN MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, P-TYPE
FAVORS MAINLY RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME;
HOWEVER, WE WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS ITS COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR
VSBYS EXPECTED MAINLY AT KPOU/KPSF UNTIL 12-14Z/SUN. LIGHTER
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VSBYS AT KALB/KGFL WITH ANY IFR VSBYS BEING BRIEF. CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
AT KPOU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR THOUGH REMAINING MVFR AT KPSF DUE
TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON UPON THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SO MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z/MON BUT REMAIN MVFR AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page