257
FXUS61 KALY 140658
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, RESULTING IN COLD AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK.
- A DISTURBANCE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH, WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 158 AM, RADAR, OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FROM AROUND I-90 AND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH, WITH THE
STEADIEST SNOW SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES. STILL
LOOKING AT GENERALLY 1-3" SNOWFALL SOUTH OF ALBANY, WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY
TRAVEL INTO THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SUNDAY MORNING TIMING WILL
LIMIT IMPACTS DUE TO LESS TRAFFIC. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON, WITH SW NEW ENGLAND THE LAST TO SEE THE
SNOW END. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. WILL MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT, WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT/MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 10S TO UPPER 20S
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DROP WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING.
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPERATURES -16C TO -20C)
MOVES IN TONIGHT, RESULTING FRIGID TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 10F. NBM TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS COLD ADVECTION REGIME AND ARE ACTUALLY
COLDER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE(MAV/MET). THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALL NIGHT, SO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE OF AT LEAST 5-15 MPH WILL RESULT IN MIN WIND CHILL/FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES OF -15F TO -5F IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND -5F
TO +5F IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME MOUNTAIN SPOTS COULD REACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS
CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY WITH THE NW FLOW.
AFTER A COLD/DRY START TO THE DAY, A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE JUST
A DUSTING TO HALF INCH. HIGHS WILL BE COLD, RANGING FROM UPPER
10S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 20S VALLEYS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH, WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WELL-ALIGNED RESULTING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM AROUND OLD FORGE NORTH
LATE MON INTO MON EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING 2-4" OF SNOW TO N.
HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD
5F-15F, BUT WINDS WILL LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A WARMUP
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE 10S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WED WITH
A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY WED P.M.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE IN WED NIGHT, WITH THE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL INDUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN A WARMUP. MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AND EVEN INTO THE 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS A STRONG CYCLONE
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA, THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN
THE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A
PERIOD OF BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP (MAINLY RAIN), AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY JET THU NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON
FRI. NBM PROBS ALREADY SHOWING A 40-70% CHANCE FOR > 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA IN THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING FRI
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. WITH ONLY A SHORT (12-18
HR) PERIOD OF WARMING, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND/OR RIVER ICE
MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, WITH DRY
AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR
VSBYS EXPECTED MAINLY AT KPOU/KPSF UNTIL 12-14Z/SUN. LIGHTER
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VSBYS AT KALB/KGFL WITH ANY IFR VSBYS BEING BRIEF. CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
AT KPOU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR THOUGH REMAINING MVFR AT KPSF DUE
TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON UPON THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SO MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z/MON BUT REMAIN MVFR AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...33
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