693
FXUS61 KALY 141808
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH DANGEROUS COLD IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND PARTS
OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. TEMPERATURES FINALLY TREND MILDER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10F TO
-20F TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
OUR PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THERE WAS EVEN SOME WEAK
HUDSON MOHAWK CONVERGENCE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THAT LED TO
BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN BREEZY AND ADVECT AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT RISE
OUT OF THE 20S AND AS THE CORE THE COLD ADVECTS EASTWARD TONIGHT
WITH 850HPA ISOTHERMS DROPPING TO -15C TO -18C (OR 2 TO 3 STD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL PER THE NAEFS), OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN FRIGID. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN AN
80% CHANCE FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION TO DROP UNDER 10 DEGREES
BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-30MPH (STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS AND BERKSHIRES), THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5F
TO -15F LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WESTERN MA AND
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
NEARING THEIR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F AND -10F,
RESPECTIVELY) SO ISSUED THE PRODUCT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 9AM TOMORROW MORNING. THE EASTERN CATSKILLS ARE ALSO
CLOSE TO THEIR CRITERIA BUT GIVEN THAT THE
-15F VALUES ARE REALLY FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS, WE HELD
OFF. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT AN AREA IS IN A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY OR NOT, DRESS WARMLY AND IN LAYERS FOR YOUR MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE AND AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD.
THE ADVECTIVE COLD REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT,
OUTSIDE OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, THERE IS LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL EXCEED 25 DEGREES.
GIVEN THAT NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15-25MPH, THE FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORNING SUN
FADING BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
LIMITED SO BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN WHERE UPSLOPE CAN ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. EVEN STILL,
ONLY EXPECTING COATING TO 0.5" OF SNOW. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE,
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS AND ALIGNS DOWN THE LONG
FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL ELICIT A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE
WITH A SINGLE LAKE BAND DEVELOPING AND BECOMING DIRECTED INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY (MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28) BY 21 UTC
MON - 00 UTC TUES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH
NEAR 700HPA MONDAY EVENING, THE BAND LOOKS TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW FOR FEW HOURS WITH THE HREF SHOWING 10 TO 30%
CHANCE FOR 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM 00-04 UTC. BY 06 - 09
UTC, MOISTURE STARTS DWINDLING AND INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY
START DROPPING SO THE BAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN BEFORE FALLING APART
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO RANGE
2 TO 5 INCHES BUT GIVEN THAT MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OLD FORGE, WILL LIKELY NOT NEED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS CHILLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ESCAPES TO OUR EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A WARMUP
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE 10S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WED WITH
A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY WED P.M.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE IN WED NIGHT, WITH THE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL INDUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN A WARMUP. MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AND EVEN INTO THE 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS A STRONG CYCLONE
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA, THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN
THE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A
PERIOD OF BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP (MAINLY RAIN), AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY JET THU NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON
FRI. NBM PROBS ALREADY SHOWING A 40-70% CHANCE FOR > 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA IN THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING FRI
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. WITH ONLY A SHORT (12-18
HR) PERIOD OF WARMING, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND/OR RIVER ICE
MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, WITH DRY
AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/MON...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 14Z/SUN AT KPOU/KPSF WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE
TAPERED OFF AT KALB/KGFL. CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE IN
THE MVFR/VFR RANGE THOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT
KPOU BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS MORNING WITH CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR THOUGH
REMAINING MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON UPON THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SO MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS
WITH THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
00Z/MON BUT REMAIN MVFR FOR A WHILE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW.
WIND WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
IN THESE DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...17
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