110
FXUS61 KALY 160709
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH
THE TIME ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM IS LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
2. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
3. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE LOW POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 980 HPA. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON PUTTING US
IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL AID
IN A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL STARTING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT (START
TIME LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS) AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
BEHIND THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW, FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LATER ACROSS THE
VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
LATEST NBM MEAN QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON AREA RIVERS, CREEKS AND
STREAMS IS EXPECTED, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS
TIME.
THE STRONG WIND FIELD AROUND THIS SYSTEM (I.E. 50-70 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WINDS) WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL LIKELY BE FAVORED ALONG THE
TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
LATER IN TIME IF CONFIDENCE ON THESE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY AREAS OF STANDING
WATER TO FREEZE UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING, FALLING BACK TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ON THE HEELS OF THE LATE WEEK STORM, A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SET UP. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 BUT MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR A VALLEY RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
VARYING AT 5 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING, AND THEN BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. DEFINITE RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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