974
FXUS61 KALY 162338
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MINOR URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
2. AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL OVER A FROZEN GROUND, THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING.
3. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER, BUT THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BRIEF WARM
UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATER THIS WEEK. A STRONG
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY, WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AHEAD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH 850 HPA
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACHING 50-65 KTS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL ALLOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO
SURGE TO +4 TO +6 C BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON THURSDAY
MORNING, THEY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEN BE RISING ALL NIGHT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME VALLEY
AREAS REACHING CLOSE TO 50 TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
EVENING, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OCCURRING BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE BURSTS
OF RAIN JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST BURSTS OF RAINFALL. LATEST NBM SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH 50% TO 80%
PROBABILITIES EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES IS
FAIRLY LOW (UNDER 10% FOR THE ENTIRE AREAS EXCEPT THE CATSKILLS
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER).
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES, TEMPS WILL START TUMBLING BACK DOWN
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S BY FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING,
MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP TO LINGER. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATE
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROBABLY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD MAIN STEAM RIVER FLOODING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RAINFALL TO CAUSE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITHIN URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS. THE MODERATE RAINFALL INTENSITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PONDING ON STREETS AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SNOW PILES BLOCKS DRAINAGE. SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CULVERTS MAY
BE CLOGGED WITH ICE, WHICH MAY IMPACT DRAINAGE AS WELL, ALLOWING
FOR SOME PONDING WITHIN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME AREAS WITH A
DEEPER SNOWPACK WILL SEE THE RAIN ABSORBED BY THE SNOW PACK, AND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE THE SNOWPACK SHRINK AND RIPEN,
BUT MAY NOT MELT OUT TOO MUCH, WHILE VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE SOME
SNOWMELT. THE WARMUP MAY BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
ICE JAM ISSUES ON THE LARGER RIVERS AS WELL. SOME ROADS MAY BE
IMPACTED BY PONDING OR STANDING WATER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ALLOWING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS FROM SEEING
THESE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS,
TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 30 TO 50 MPH FOR FRIDAY LATE
MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PEAK WINDS
PROBABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AND THE NBM SUGGESTS HIGH
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE CATSKILLS, CAPITAL
REGION, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/THURSDAY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH JUST OCCASIONAL HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/WED, WITH CIGS
GENERALLY 3500-5000 FT AGL, HOWEVER LOWER CIGS (MVFR) WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PERHAPS AT KPSF
INTERMITTENTLY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN TREND
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
BY LATE WED MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT TOWARD 00Z/THU. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KGFL, KPOU AND KPSF AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KT OR LESS, WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 30-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
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