515
FXUS61 KALY 171730
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FOR THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN, THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE NARROW NORTH SOUTH VALLEYS NEAR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY. VERY WINDY POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MILDER AIR MASS BRIEFLY RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING YIELDING A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW MELT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
2. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE PERIOD OF RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.
3. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
DOWN SOME LARGE TREE LIMBS, TREES AND CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES.
4. FRIGID CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CLIPPER LOW PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON THE HEELS OF A CLIPPER LOW AND A COLD FRONT TODAY PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION,
THEN A MILDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY. TEMPS HAVE
AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS SINCE THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WITH MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AN INFLUX OF MILDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. TEMPS ON THU
MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH MID 30S TO
AROUND 40F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
THE H925/H850 LOW-LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO 50-70 KT THU NIGHT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BRIEFLY SURGING INTO THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES V-WIND ANOMALIES
/SOUTHERLIES/ AT 850 HPA BEING +3 TO +4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
/STDEVS/ ABOVE NORMAL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THU NIGHT FROM
LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S EARLY ON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. H850 TEMPS RISE +1
TO +2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE ACTUAL TEMPS +3 TO +6C BY FRI
MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN
A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY WITH TEMPS RISING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH NBM HIGHS OF UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUPPORTED
IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE SNOWPACK WILL MELT IN MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SOME
REDUCTION OF THE PACK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK HAS A "GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS" FORECAST OVER ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THU-THU NIGHT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WE DID NOT ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORECAST YET. QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY EXCESSIVE, BUT WILL
DISCUSS IT FURTHER IN THE NEXT "KEY MESSAGE". STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS FRI PM INTO FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH TEMPS CRASHING BACK BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK ENDING
THE MILD AIR MASS QUICKLY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET A DUSTING TO
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES AND IN
FAVORED WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OR QPF WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN A 12-18-HR WINDOW. SNOW DEPTHS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS RANGE FROM 8-20" AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS 6-16" BASED
ON THE LATEST NOHRSC. MANY VALLEY AREAS HAVE 1-6". THE STRONG
SOUTHERLIES AND THE RAINFALL MAY MELT A LOT OF THE SNOW PACK IN
THE VALLEYS CAUSING PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN LOW-
LYING AREAS. SOME MELTING, MOVEMENT AND BREAK-UP OF ICE MAY
OCCUR ON RIVERS. THE SNOWPACK MAY RIPEN OR COMPACT DUE TO
ABSORPTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE LATEST RAINFALL
FORECAST IS FOR 0.75"-1.0" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
1-1.5" OR SO OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
FORECAST, BUT POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE VALLEY AREAS. FRIGID AIR WILL GUSH BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL DRY THINGS OUT AND FREEZE UP ANY STANDING WATER. ICE
ON THE NORTHERN MOST BASINS RANGES FROM 3" TO 9" BASED ON THE
NERFC GUIDANCE, WHICH IS THICK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THE
ICE JAM THREAT LOOKS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH A BRIEF SPELL OF MILDER
WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS. LOCAL
CSTAR COOL SEASON RESEARCH WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT ANOMALOUS
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WINDS WITH STRONG CYCLONES CAN PRODUCE
IMPACTS. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 50-70 KT THU
NIGHT-FRI MORNING IN TH H925-H850 LAYER. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE IF SOME OF THESE WINDS AT 925 HPA OR 850 HPA PUNCTURE THROUGH
THE STABLE LAYER AND REACH THE SURFACE. THE PAST RESEARCH AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FAVOR PERHAPS WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WIND GUSTS (46-57 MPH) FOR
THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN (SOUTHERN GREENS,
BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS), THE TACONICS, THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND SOMETIME NARROW SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEYS MERGING
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE USED AND COLLABORATED THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT-FRI. SOME GUSTS 40-50
MPH ARE SUPPORTED IN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED AREAS. WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER AND WE WILL NOTE THIS IN A DSS
ONE PAGER TO OUR CUSTOMERS.
PART II OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR FRI PM INTO FRI NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SFC
PRESSURE RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THE ORDER OF 9-12
HPA/6HRS. THE H925 WINDS ARE IMPRESSIVE AT 35-45 KTS. IT WILL
BE AT NIGHT BUT DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE RAPID
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
40-55 MPH WHICH COULD BRING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS, SOME LARGE
TREES, AND POWER LINES CAUSING SOME POWER OUTAGES. NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT A HIGH WIND WATCH YET, BUT AT LEAST A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRI PM TO FRI NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR MAX GUST
PROBABILITIES (QMD) > 40 MPH FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 1 AM
SATURDAY ARE OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION,
TACONICS AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SUBSIDE MID TO LATE SAT MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SAT MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH COLDER READINGS OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER/HYBRID CYCLONE APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CLIPPER COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (A FEW
INCHES) SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH WITH
SOME ROAD IMPACTS. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE CLIPPERS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 12:25 PM EST. WHILE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALB/GFL WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD (HENCE
MENTION OF VCSH IN THESE TAFS), MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AT GFL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ASIDE FROM ANY FOG/MIST LATE
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TOMORROW WITH
MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SE TO START THE TAF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT ALB/PSF/POU. WINDS VEER TO THE S/SW
AROUND SUNSET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH DIMINISHING GUSTS, THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 22-02Z FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AT AROUND 10
KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT AT ALB/PSF. ALB/PSF WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
LLWS CONCERNS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 40-45KT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS, GUSTS, AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY
TO MID-MORNING TOMORROW. THEN, WINDS INCREASE AROUND 5 KT FROM THE
S/SE AT GFL/POU AND 10KT AT ALB/PSF WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT AT ALB/PSF
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
RENEWED LLWS CONCERNS AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW MID-MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 39 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 39 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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