947
FXUS61 KALY 180227
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING CLOUD
COVER/WIND THIS EVENING, AND ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS SOME RIVER VALLEYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION, AND AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS TREND TO CALM, TEMPS SHOULD FALL
WELL BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINTS, RAISING CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FREEZING FOG TOWARD/AROUND DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
2. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DUE TO THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT EARLY FRIDAY.
3. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.
4. FRIGID CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE HEADING ACROSS
ONTARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET. 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO
80 KTS, ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE, 850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO WARM TO +4 TO +8 C
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY, WITH EVEN SOME LOW
40S BY EVENING FOR VALLEY AREAS THANKS TO A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY BREEZE. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHELTERED AREAS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST
TO WARM UP. SOME VALLEY AREAS MAY SPIKE IN LOW TO POSSIBLY
MIDDLE 50S FOR FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL CRASH
BACK DOWN, WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOWER TERRAIN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO COOL, BUT
ALL AREAS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING, MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BE DONE BY NOON FRIDAY, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY END AS SOME WET SNOW AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NBM
CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 50% TO 80% CHANCE
OF 1" FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT PROBABILITIES DROP CONSIDERABLY
FOR 2", WITH MOST OF THE REGION UNDER A 10% CHANCE FOR GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES. WHILE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SNOWMELT TO RUNOFF INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH
SNOWMELT, AS THE SNOWPACK WILL NEED TO RIPEN AND THE RAINFALL
MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE SNOWPACK, ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREENS WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER. VALLEY AREAS MAY START
TO LOSE THE SNOWPACK, ALTHOUGH IT HAS MUCH LESS WATER CONTENT
COMPARED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. NOHRSC SHOWS LESS THAN 1" OF
WATER IN MOST VALLEY AREAS SNOWPACK AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT,
THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE WARMUP AND LIMITED RUNOFF PROBABLY WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO MOVE ICE ON THE LARGER RIVERS. HOWEVER, SMALLER
STREAMS, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS, MAY SEE SOME ICE
MOVEMENT AND RIVER RISES. ICE OR SNOW PILES MAY BLOCK DRAINAGE
IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS AND THE GROUND IS FROZEN. BASED ON
THIS, SOME PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY ON ROADWAYS, IN FARM
FIELDS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS OR WHERE INFRASTRUCTURE CAUSES
TYPICAL ISSUES. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FIRST THING ON FRIDAY
MORNING DURING THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL, WHEN RATES MAY EXCEED
0.25" PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION JUST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET ARE AS HIGH
AS 80 KTS, WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE
00Z NAEFS. THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD HELP PREVENT MOST OF
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE SOME GUSTS DO
MIX DOWN WITHIN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. IN ADDITION, THE S-SE FLOW DOWNSLOPES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND GREENS, SO SOME LOCALLY
HIGH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY BREAKS OF PRECIP OCCUR. 3KM
HRRR AND NAM DO SHOW SOME GUSTS REACHING 50-55 MPH IN THESE
AREAS. OVERALL, ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTS OVER
40 MPH, BUT THE MAX GUSTS MAY FOR THESE LOCALIZED HIGH TERRAIN
SPOTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE TACONICS.
IN ADDITION, ALL AREAS WILL BE SEEING WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE COOLER AIR ALLOWS FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING
WITHIN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN, MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS, HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SECOND ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A FOCUSED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOME OF THE
EASTERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT MAX GUST
POTENTIAL AND MIXING POTENTIAL WITHIN THE RAINFALL AND
INVERSION, BUT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR
SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING WET SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FREEZE
OVER, ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT. A CLIPPER
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE A MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEM, SO LITTLE TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
IT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR FOR MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY BRING A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH THIS FAR OUT, AS MODELS HAVE HAD
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING STORM TRACK AND PRECIP AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD RETURN SNOW COVER TO THE REGION IN TIME FOR
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, SO WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY FOR THAT
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRI, COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST OF KGFL, KALB
AND KPSF AND WILL PASS THROUGH KPOU BY 02Z/THU. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN VFR/MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH
02Z-04Z/THU, THEN EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING THEREAFTER. A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 10Z/THU AND LINGERING UNTIL
~14Z-16Z/THU. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS,
WITH BEST CHANCE AT KALB AND KGFL. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD
LIFT AFTER 16Z/THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING UNTIL
AFTER 20Z. THEREAFTER, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND
AFFECT KPOU, KPSF AND KALB.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER 04Z/THU, TRENDING TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z/THU WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL AT
40-50 KT WITH SFC WINDS MAINLY BELOW 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z-19Z/THU AS SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT, WHILE SFC WINDS
REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. DEFINITE RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...24/27
AVIATION...24
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