298
FXUS61 KALY 181842
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS, BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TOP OUT AROUND 60 MPH.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL.
2. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DUE TO THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT EARLY FRIDAY, BUT MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
3. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF THE TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.
4. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH
A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HEAD
ACROSS QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN
PLACE. AT 850 HPA, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 50-80 KTS, WHICH
IS ABOUT ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS. WHILE TEMPS MAY INITIALLY
DROP A LITTLE BIT THIS EVENING, THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR
START TO RISE, ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO
MID 50S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH FOR MID
DECEMBER (THE DAILY RECORD FOR ALBANY IS 54 SET IN 1895).
FRIDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS, AS ONCE THE
FRONT CROSSES, TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN. IT WON'T BE AN
IMMEDIATE FLASH FREEZE SITUATION, BUT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE
BACK BELOW FREEZING BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
BE BACK INTO THE LOW 30S BY EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS EARLY AS THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE A WELL-FORCED LINE IS EXPECTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CAMS SUGGEST THIS OCCURS ON FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 1 PM. WITHIN
THIS WELL-FORCED LINE, A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BUT NO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE AND EVEN THE SPC HREF SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE
COAST, ACCORDING TO THE MUCAPE VALUES. BEHIND THE WELL-FORCED
LINE, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR-PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE THIS RAINFALL END AS SOME WET SNOW
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION, BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
RAIN END BEFORE TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP. ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIP BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. NBM HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1" OF
PRECIP (50-90% ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA) BUT LOW VALUES FOR
2" OR MORE (WITH JUST THE CATSKILLS HAVE A SLIGHT SIGNAL FOR
THAT). THIS RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY COME IN A FEW HOURS WITHIN THE
WELL-FORCED LINE AND STEADY RAINFALL BEHIND IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SNOWMELT TO RUNOFF INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH
SNOWMELT, AS THE SNOWPACK WILL NEED TO RIPEN AND THE RAINFALL
MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE SNOWPACK, ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREENS WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER. VALLEY AREAS MAY START
TO LOSE THE SNOWPACK, ALTHOUGH IT HAS MUCH LESS WATER CONTENT
COMPARED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. NOHRSC SHOWS LESS THAN 1" OF
WATER IN MOST VALLEY AREAS SNOWPACK AT THIS TIME AND IT HAS
ALREADY BEEN SLOWLY MELTING TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE BRIEF
NATURE OF THE WARMUP AND LIMITED RUNOFF PROBABLY WON'T BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE ICE ON THE LARGER RIVERS. HOWEVER, SMALLER STREAMS,
ESPECIALLY IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS, MAY SEE SOME ICE MOVEMENT AND
RIVER RISES. ICE OR SNOW PILES MAY BLOCK DRAINAGE IN URBAN AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND THE GROUND IS FROZEN. BASED ON THIS, SOME
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY ON ROADWAYS, IN FARM FIELDS AND OTHER
LOW SPOTS OR WHERE INFRASTRUCTURE CAUSES TYPICAL ISSUES. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ON FRIDAY MORNING DURING THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL, WHEN RATES MAY EXCEED 0.25" PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME GUSTS BEING REPORTED
AROUND 20 MPH. AS BOTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES, WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 30 MPH BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE TACONICS, BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT AND THE
BERKSHIRES, WHERE THIS TYPE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY
DOWNSLOPES THROUGH THE TERRAIN AND ALLOWS FOR STRONG WINDS ON
THE WESTERN SLOPES. WHILE WINDS MAY NOT ALWAYS MIX DOWN TO THE
MOIST THERMAL PROFILE AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION, THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN BETWEEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
FOR THE AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
TACONICS, BENNINGTON AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY, WHILE THE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS,
BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. ALL AREAS SHOULD WIDESPREAD
WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE.
THE PEAK FOR THESE LOOKS TO BE IN THE EVENING WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES THANKS TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
MORE DOWNED TREES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE OF WIND AS WELL,
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR
SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING WET SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FREEZE
OVER, ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED, WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. AS
A RESULT, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND MAY JUST BE A
FRESH COATING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR FOR MONDAY,
WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE ENTIRE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MAY LIMIT TOTAL PRECIP AND MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ONLY SHOW LIGHT QPF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE THAT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS, WHICH COULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEN LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS FROM AROUND 02Z-04Z AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 04Z-10Z, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30. STEADIER RAIN, OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE/HEAVY AT TIMES, THEN DEVELOPS AROUND 14Z-16Z FRIDAY
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AT MOST SITES DURING THIS TIME THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD, AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
INITIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KT, INCREASING TO 50-60 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND
3-10 KT INTO THIS EVENING, THEN STEADILY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TO 12-22 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VTZ014-015.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...07
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