148
FXUS61 KALY 191918
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
218 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED, THUS MENTION OF THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH, WHILE WE HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS,
THEY ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT, OTHERWISE LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WITH THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO DECREASE TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, PATCHY BLACK ICE
AND SLICK/SLIPPERY SURFACES CAN EXIST TONIGHT.
3. OUR NEXT MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN WIND GUSTS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS AS WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR WINDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 35 AND
45 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES, WINDS COULD GUST
BETWEEN 50 AND 58 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS,
THE SOUTHERN GREENS, AND THE BERKSHIRES THIS EVENING SO THE
THREAT IMPACTS STILL EXIST FOR TONIGHT OF TREE LIMBS COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.
IF CONDITIONS CHANGE, THEN UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED TO REFLECT
OBSERVATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2 PM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LINE OF WHERE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVED
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
CENTRAL TACONICS. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT IN A TRUE FLASH FREEZE SITUATION
(WHERE THEY RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING), THE SLOW AND STEADY
DECREASE DOES LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY ICE TO DEVELOP ON
SURFACES THAT REMAIN NOT DRY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH THE LIGHT SNOWFALL, ANY UNTREATED PAVEMENT SURFACE CAN
BECOME SLICK AND SLIPPERY TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OUR NEXT MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES. AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
ONSET TIMING IS LOOKING TO BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW. THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT
THAT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WITH FORECAST MODELS IS WHEN THE
WARMER AIR ARRIVES TO RISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TO
TRANSITION OVER SNOW TO RAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
TRANSITION PERIOD TIMING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS BEING A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE REGION AND HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH
THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO FALL
AND WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. KPSF IS ALSO NOW
HAVING THE FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CROSS AND WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SWITCH AROUND THERE TOO.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG,
AS THERE WILL BE A LULL BEFORE THE DEEPER MIXING IS IN PLACE AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
INITIALLY BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
HOWEVER, ONCE THE GRADIENT INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TONIGHT, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR KALB AND KPSF. THESE WINDS MAY START TO
DECREASE AFTER 08Z OR SO, AND START GRADUALLY COMING DOWN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SOME STEADY RAINFALL WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. VISIBILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITHIN THIS LINGERING LIGHT
RAINFALL. IT SHOULD BE DONE FOR MOST AREAS BY 20Z OR SO. SOME
INTERMITTENT UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW MAY LINGER AT KPSF INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY KEEPER LOWER VISIBILITY THERE INTO
THE EVENING, MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ANY
PRECIP WILL JUST BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST SITES, WITH SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 3500-5000 FT, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD
LINGER AT KPSF INTO PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON SATURDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH
NO PRECIP WITH JUST SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ014-015.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27
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