158
FXUS61 KALY 221841
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCES.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
COLDER, WITH P-TYPE NOW FAVORING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRENDING COLDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ALSO ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, AND
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT.
2. AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY, THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX FOR FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.
3. TEMPERATURES TRENDS ARE ALSO COLDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW/WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FAST MOVING SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, THEN SHOULD EXPAND NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION, SW ADIRONDACKS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN MA
AND SOUTHERN VT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 9 AM. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
RATES SHOULD BE 0.25-0.50 INCH/HOUR OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW
PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER RATES (0.50-0.75"/HOUR) COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, AND DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, THERE
COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE REGION AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
1-3 INCHES, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SW ADIRONDACKS, AND
SOUTHERN VT WHERE SOME AMOUNTS OF 4-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS WHERE
GREATER AMOUNTS AND RESULTING IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY. WILL HAVE
TO ALSO WATCH AREAS OF NW CT AND WESTERN MA AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, AS SOME BANDING POTENTIAL COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES.
HAVE BLENDED COLDER HRRR/NAM TEMPS FOR TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS, WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS NORTH
OF I-90 INCLUDING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH CONFLUENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH REINFORCING SHALLOW COLD
AIR. AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES, THE COLD AIR SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE
STORM TRACK AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY, AS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MUCH OF WHICH
COULD BE SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX. HIGH TEMPS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
COLDER FOR FRI, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH COLDER TRENDS NOTED ON MODELS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
(SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG WITH A
WINTRY MIX FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION, FAVORING AREAS
NORTH OF I-90 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 23/06Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BEGINNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST, LIGHT SNOW BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO ALL AIRFIELDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN PROB30
GROUPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE PREVAILING. VISIBILITIES CAN
FLUCTUATE TOMORROW BETWEEN 1/2 MILE IN MODERATE SNOW TO 3 MILES IN
LIGHT SNOW. CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO LOWER TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 23/12Z AND 23/18Z. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR WITH
THE LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS THE 12Z TIMEFRAME GETS CLOSER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE COULD INCREASE IN THE EXACT TIMING FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL
AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN...FZRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ063.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
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