622
FXUS61 KALY 232313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT HAVE
DECREASED NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR (MAINLY UNDER AN INCH, WITH
SOME AREAS JUST RECEIVING A COATING). THIS ALSO HAS NECESSITATED
CANCELLATION OF PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERKSHIRE
AND EASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS REACHING 45-50 MPH HAS INCREASED
WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND COLDER FOR FRIDAY-
SATURDAY SYSTEM, FAVORING MAINLY SNOW WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN VT WHERE SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING.
2. STRONG GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN TACONICS.
3. TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRIDAY-
SATURDAY SYSTEM, WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AND GREATEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
4. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING, MOST LIKELY BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
(INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONGOING SYSTEM BRING 2 MAIN AREAS OF SNOW, WITH INITIAL AREA
MAINLY ACROSS SE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT TAPERING
OFF OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. MEANWHILE, AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING
ALONG WITH APPROACH OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 AREAS NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR,
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WITH
BORDERLINE TEMPS AROUND/JUST OVER FREEZING, ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. NORTHERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES EXCEPT 3-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT, WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ICE NUCLEI SHOULD
DECREASE AND MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT THIS
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE, BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES BACK
SOUTH AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE AND
OCCLUDED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANNELING OF WINDS
WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS TO REACH 40-50 MPH, WITH WIND GUSTS
ELSEWHERE MAINLY 35-45 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THESE MAGNITUDES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS ARE NOW FAVORING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH 13Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >2"
SNOWFALL ENDING 7 AM SAT AT 60-80% SOUTH OF I-90, WITH SIMILAR
PROBS FOR >6" SNOWFALL AT 30-50% IN THESE SAME AREAS. WITH A
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH, POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX FOR THIS PERIOD
HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FUTURE TRENDS IN CASE TRACK SHIFTS BACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT, HOWEVER
LINGERING COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN AS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. THERE STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY
THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE
REGION, HOWEVER 24-HOUR PROBS FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS THROUGH
7 AM MONDAY ARE 40-60%, SUGGESTING AREAS OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART, LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY
IMPACT KGFL AND PERHAPS KPSF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
OTHERWISE, PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCT-
BKN CIGS AROUND 3500-4500 FT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NO PRECIP.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR SO FOR ALL SITES AND START TO INCREASE.
WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR ALL SITES, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
FOR ALL SITES. SOME TOP GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 40 KTS FOR
KPSF/KALB DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES AND BECOME 5-10 KTS
FOR ALL SITES BY EVENING. 2 KFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AS WELL, BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY, WON'T INCLUDE LLWS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN...FZRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033-038-039-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...27
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