924
FXUS61 KALY 250533
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT/MODERATE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
ULSTER COUNTY FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL MAINLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-90.
2. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
(INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SWATH OF
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LIKELY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW'S TRACK, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
LATEST 24-HR NBM PROBS FOR > 2" OF SNOWFALL THROUGH 7 AM
SATURDAY ARE 60-90% AND FOR > 4" ARE 50- 80% FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTH. PROBS FOR > 6" ARE 40-60% LIMITED TO THE E.
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MID HUDSON VALLEY, MAXIMIZED
ACROSS ULSTER COUNTY. BASED ON THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, WE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ULSTER COUNTY FOR 4 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 1
PM SATURDAY, WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR AROUND/SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7" EXISTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER
NORTH.
WE EXPECT A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN EXPECTATION OF VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
DRAINING SOUTH AND WEST FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AMID STRONG ZONE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT DEVIATION IN
STORM TRACK WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING SATURDAY, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY, AND COULD EXPAND NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS NORTHWARD.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE AND DURING THE
ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL, MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE 20S BY LATE
SATURDAY. THUS, EVEN WHERE SNOWFALL REMAINS LIGHT IN INTENSITY,
VERY COLD GROUND SURFACES MAY MAKE SNOW REMOVAL MORE DIFFICULT
AND COULD RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY ROADS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE REGION, HOWEVER SHALLOW COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A WINTRY MIX, PRIMARILY AS
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AT THE
START ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL WARMING MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
13Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 7 AM MONDAY FOR >0.01" OF FREEZING
RAIN ARE 40-80% ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SARATOGA REGION, AS WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN VT, AND GENERALLY 20-50% ELSEWHERE, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES,
LITCHFIELD HILLS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SIMILAR PROBS FOR >0.10"
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE GENERALLY 10-30% ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER,
NBM MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM AND MAY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
TOO QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY FOR EMBEDDED VALLEY REGIONS NORTH OF
I-90, SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST, VERY COLD GROUND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS FOR AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH/WEST OF
ALBANY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SHORT-WAVE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER 10Z-15Z/THU WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH CIGS MAINLY
VFR IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
IMPACT KGFL/KPSF AND WE INCLUDED VCSH GROUPS PRIOR TO 18Z/THU.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER 18Z/THU AND BECOMING GUSTY. THE
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR PRIOR TO 00Z/FRI.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS OR CALM
THIS MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK. THEY WILL VEER INITIALLY TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AT 10-18 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS 25-32 KT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK BY 22Z/THU
TO 00Z/FRI FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10-16 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS STILL 20-25 KT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED BRIEFLY 12Z TO 17Z/THU
AT KPOU AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS WILL BE ABOUT
40 KT WITH THE SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA...SLEET.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ063-064.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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