310
FXUS61 KALY 251132
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN MODERATE SNOWFALL
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE WESTERN GREENE COUNTY AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULSTER
COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
2. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS A WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY.
3. TURNING COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH FRI MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 25-40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL
ALSO TURN COLDER TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM -5F IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER 10S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND -15F TO 5F.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRI, AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS NE ACROSS QUEBEC AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. A
SWATH OF SNOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM AROUND THE
I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. SLIGHTLY SLOPED F-GEN MAXIMIZED IN THE
800-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES AND SLR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
AT 13:1 TO 15:1, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATIONS.
THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE, SO INCREASED QPF HAS LED TO EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INTO W. GREENE COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE 7" SNOW OR
MORE. WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR ULSTER COUNTY AS WELL. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH FOR 3-6" SNOW ONCE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FURTHER. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE DUE TO COLD/DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, SO ADIRONDACKS
TO LAKE GEORGE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 1-2". ADDITIONAL
SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK WOULD AFFECT POSITION OF
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BY SUN EVENING, AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL BRING OVER-RUNNING
PRECIP SUN NIGHT, BUT WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX TO START (MAINLY
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN), WHICH WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY INTO
MON MORNING.
THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW/MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE IN MANY
AREAS WITH NBM PROBS FOR > 0.01" ICE OF 20-80% (GREATEST IN
HIGHER TERRAIN). NBM PROBS FOR > 0.10 ICE ARE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AT 10-35%. THIS IS WHERE THE ICE WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTFUL. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON MON, WARMING
WOULD RESULT IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT. 48-HR NBM PROBS FOR > 0.50" LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
60-85%, BUT ONLY 20-55% FOR > 1.00" SO HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR 40F FROM AROUND
ALBANY SOUTH ON MON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE, IT WILL TURN WINDY AND
COLDER AS A POTENTIAL 980 MB CYCLONE TRACKS INTO SE QUEBEC BY
TUE MORNING. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 40-50 KT WINDS
ALOFT, COLD ADVECTION WOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (45-55 MPH) IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME, THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND/OR W.
MOHAWK VALLEY ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATIONS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PREDOMINATELY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH MID-LEVEL AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT-WAVE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER 12Z-17Z/THU WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH CIGS MAINLY
VFR IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
IMPACT KGFL/KPSF AND WE INCLUDED VCSH GROUPS PRIOR TO 18Z/THU.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER 18Z/THU AND BECOMING GUSTY. THE
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR PRIOR TO 00Z/FRI AND BE
MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AFTER
DAYBREAK. THEY WILL VEER INITIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AT 10-18 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 25-32 KT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK BY 22Z/THU TO 00Z/FRI FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10-16 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL 20-25 KT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. LLWS WAS INCLUDED BRIEFLY 12Z TO
17Z/THU AT KPOU/KGFL/KPSF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE 2 KFT AGL
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 40 KT WITH THE SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA...SLEET.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ058-063-064.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...15
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