065
FXUS61 KALY 261722
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED SNOW HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
MODERATE SNOWFALL NOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
(NORTHERN FULTON CO) AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY, WHERE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED. THE AXIS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL NOW EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS AND MOST OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY (WESTERN COLUMBIA CO.) WHERE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING WAS EXPANDED. LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT WHERE NO WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER SUNSET INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS,
SCHOHARIE VALLEY, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS IN
EASTERN NY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT.
2. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS A WINTRY MIX
(MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN RAIN
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY
BE IMPACTED BY THE ICY CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
3. MUCH COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC. A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
RETREATS DOWN STREAM WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT TO TAKE PLACE TOWARDS SUNSET TODAY.
A LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER NY/PA WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING IN THE 4-7 PM TIME FRAME ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE WAVE
WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM I-90 AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE ALY CWA THAT INCLUDE
THE SOUTHERN DACKS, LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA AND SOUTHERN
VT WITH 1-3" OR 2-4" POSSIBLE.
IN THE WARNING AREAS (SCHOHARIE VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
HELDERBERGS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT),
WE EXPECT THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN IN THE 850-700 HPA AND
700-500 HPA LAYERS TO BE FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND EAST IN
THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 23Z/6PM FRI TO 05Z/MIDNIGHT SAT, WHEN
THE BEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING MAY OCCUR IN THE BROADER
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE. SNOWFALL RATES
1"/HR ARE SUPPORTED IN THE 60-90% RANGE IN THE LATEST HREFS
BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z/SAT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
WEST...AND 2"/HR PROBABILITIES ARE 40-60% IN THE SAME TIME FRAME
FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND NW CT
CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. BASICALLY, A QUICK
SURGE/FLURRY OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
INTENSE 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE THE CLIMO NORMALS IN THE 13-17:1 RANGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
WILL BE THE BEST IN THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE LATEST
HI RESOLUTION AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE, AS THE BEST DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ALL SAID,
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WE ADDED IN A FEW MORES ZONES
INCLUDING WESTERN COLUMBIA CO., SCHOHARIE CO. AND WESTERN ALBANY
CO. WITH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT FOR 5-10" OF SNOW. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 7-10" MAY BE CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. A BROADER
AREA OF 3-7" WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL TACONICS, GREATER
CAPITAL REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, SARATOGA REGION AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND THE BERKSHIRES IN MA
WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES ARE OUT. DEPENDING ON THE SNOW
RATIOS AND TRACK WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CAREFULLY IF SOME AREAS
IN THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTH-CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES MIGHT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. 1-3"/2-4" ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE VALLEYS
WITH A FEW MID 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COLDER TEMPS WITH A DRIER AND
FLUFFIER SNOWFALL WITH ALLOW FOR VERY SLICK CONDITIONS ON SOME
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IF UNTREATED. THE SNOWFALL WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES QUICKLY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RESPITE WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FRESH SNOW PACK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE...CLOSER
TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OR COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD SURFACES AND A COLD AIR
DAMMING SET-UP FOR SUNDAY.
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SHORT-WAVE EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER, AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ERUPTS OVER PA/NY WITH LIKELY MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF FOR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NIGHTFALL. WARMING
WILL OCCUR ALOFT AND FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE WITH SLEET/SNOW MAY BRIEFLY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES, BUT THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A DOMINATE FRZA PTYPE TO RAIN SUN NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY, THE COLD AIR WILL BE DAMMED INTO PLACE, BUT IT
SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS.
A MODERATE/HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ICE ACCUM CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NBM 24-HR PROBS ENDING 7 PM
MONDAY IN THE 40-95% RANGE. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.10" OF "FLAT ICE" ARE 30-50% OVER THE
EASTERN ADIRODNACKS, FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE
AND THE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION. WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH ICE ACCUMS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPLODE AND DEEPEN TO 975 HPA OR SO OVER
LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY CORRIDOR MON PM. WARM AIR WILL
CREEP IN AT THE SFC BRIEFLY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30 TO MID 40S,
BUT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON PM-MON NIGHT IT WILL
BECOME WINDY AND VERY COLD AGAIN. ANY RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW. THE EXACT QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE, BUT THE LATEST 24-HR NBM (QMD)
PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS >0.75" BY 7 PM MONDAY ARE 50-80%
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT SOME OF THIS QPF
IS THE WINTRY MIX (FREEZING RAIN/SLEET) BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AND THEN BACK TO SNOW OVER THE MTNS LATE MON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS NE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY MON
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY COLD ADVECTION (CAA)
REGIME, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
THE CYCLONE MAY BE SUB-980MB, WHICH WILL INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
850 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 45-55 KT. THE CAA WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY
DEEP MIXING, SO AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (45-55 MPH)
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST NBM PROBS FOR MAX WIND GUSTS > 40 MPH
ARE 40-90% ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING FAVORED
AREAS IN WESTERLY FLOW SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT, CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS, AND BERKSHIRES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT RUSHING IN AND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITH
THE EXPECTED WESTERLY FLOW, W. ADIRONDACKS LOOK MOST FAVORED FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
FLOW TRAJECTORY COULD CHANGE SNOWBAND PLACEMENT. NBM 48-HR PROBS
ENDING 7 PM WED FOR > 6" OF IS 40-80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE W.
ADIRONDACKS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT, IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COLD. AT THIS TIME, WIND CHILLS OR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SHY OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT COULD PEAK
BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AT TIMES MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 12:20 PM EST AT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TO SHORTLY AFTER.
THEN, SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22-02Z.
HAVE TIMED THIS OUT USING TEMPO GROUPS. ONCE SNOW BEGINS, VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR TO LIFR. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE AT
POU/ALB/PSF WHERE VLIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR VSBYS
AND IFR CIGS. ONCE SNOW ENDS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG SNOW LINGERS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE 6-10" FOR POU, 5-9" FOR
ALB/PSF, AND 4-6" FOR GFL. WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS FROM
THE E/NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BACKING TO THE N/NE TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...FZRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043-083-084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07/15
AVIATION...35
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