639
FXUS61 KALY 261807
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AND NORTH OF I-90,
RESULTING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 PM
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HEAVIEST SNOW NOW
EXPECTED FROM SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
SOUTH/EAST. MODERATE SNOW ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
2. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS A WINTRY MIX
(MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN RAIN
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY
BE IMPACTED BY THE ICY CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
3. MUCH COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BITTERLY COLD AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO A VERY SNOWY
EVENING/NIGHT, AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS MI MOVES
EAST/SOUTHEAST. QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING NETWORKS, REFLECTING THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WE EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY,
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY REACHING 1-2"/HOUR SHORTLY AFTER
SNOW ONSET WITHIN MOST OF THE WARNING AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY LAST 2-3 HOURS, BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY TOWARD AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWBAND LINGERS
LONGEST IS WHERE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE, WHICH CURRENTLY
FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TO AREAS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 8" WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY 5-8" IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITH GENERALLY 3-6" WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA, LOWEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN WARREN/WASHINGTON COS.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WHERE UPWARD MOTION WILL
BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, THE BEST UPWARD
MOTION SHIFTS UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW SNOW TO BECOME MORE DENSE IN
CONSISTENCY WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IF A
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACCELERATES MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TREND CLOSELY WHICH COULD CAUSE OVERALL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO "UNDERACHIEVE" FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO, AND DURING THE SNOWFALL
WILL ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON GROUND SURFACES VERY QUICKLY
AND EFFICIENTLY, CREATING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND VERY
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY, SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
COULD CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIALLY BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT EARLY GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO (IF NOT COLDER). THIS WILL THEN SET THE
STAGE FOR A DEVELOPING WINTRY MIX (MAINLY FREEZING RAIN) SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALLOWS TEMPS TO SURGE ABOVE FREEZING
QUICKLY, HOWEVER SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR THE
SURFACE, PARTICULARLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT THE START, IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM FROM WEST
TO EAST. ANTECEDENT VERY COLD GROUND SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFECTIVE ICE ACCRETION ON UNTREATED GROUND SURFACES SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IN ADDITION,
FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY IN SOME
SHELTERED AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, WITH FLAT ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIALLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 0.25-0.35" IN SOME AREAS.
AGAIN, WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY AS THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS INCLUDING A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWER
OUTAGES SHOULD THESE ICE AMOUNTS (OR EVEN GREATER) OCCUR.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN THEN POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH SNOW
LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT BEGINS MOVING BACK INTO THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, AND
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST, IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN BELOW 980 MB AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH AN UPPER LOW. WITH A STRONG 1035 MB SFC
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RESULTING 850 MB LLJ STILL LOOKS TO BE
ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KT, AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY WINDS AT THE SFC. PER THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE EFI VALUES ARE >0.7 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, WITH
A SOT BETWEEN 0 AND 1, WHICH IS A STRONG SIGNAL THIS FAR OUT FOR
GUSTY WINDS. MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORIES, WITH
SOME TARGETED HIGH WIND WARNINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE BERKSHIRES, WHERE THE NBM IS ALREADY SHOWING
30-40% CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS >58 MPH TUESDAY.
WITH STORM W/NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
GREAT LAKES, POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW COLD THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR
850 MB TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR DROP BELOW -15C, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PLENTY OF LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY. W/NW FLOW TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN ADKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT VERY
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD SHIFT THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADKS TO SEE >6" OF SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND GIVEN
THE TENDENCY OF THE NBM TO STRUGGLE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW WE WOULD
EXPECT THESE PROBABILITIES TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
FINALLY, THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES COULD
LEAD TO SOME BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WE REMAIN IN A COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS, WITH SOME BELOW-ZERO READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 12:20 PM EST AT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TO SHORTLY AFTER.
THEN, SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22-02Z.
HAVE TIMED THIS OUT USING TEMPO GROUPS. ONCE SNOW BEGINS, VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR TO LIFR. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE AT
POU/ALB/PSF WHERE VLIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR VSBYS
AND IFR CIGS. ONCE SNOW ENDS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG SNOW LINGERS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE 6-10" FOR POU, 5-9" FOR
ALB/PSF, AND 4-6" FOR GFL. WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS FROM
THE E/NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BACKING TO THE N/NE TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 39 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043-083-084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15/24/35
AVIATION...35
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