581
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1204 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE CAPITAL AND SARATOGA REGIONS,
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE COUNTY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. STEADY SNOWFALL HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND JUST SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DIMINISHING SNOWFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND
MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS A WINTRY
MIX (MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THE ICY CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
3. MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST
INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND NAMNEST SHOWS THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES DIMINISHING AROUND 12Z/7 AM TO 14Z/9 AM SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS
HAVE COME IN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES WITH LIGHTER TO
MODERATE TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE COMING
IN OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT. SEE OUR LATEST LSR AND PNS PRODUCTS FOR
REPORTS. ALL WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 7 AM.
ITS COLD OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN TACONICS/NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH 20S TO SOME LOWER 30S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEAR OR OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES, A FRESH SNOW PACK
AND LIGHT TO CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE
NBM TEMPS WERE TOO WARM AND STRUGGLE WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
ENVIRONMENTS. WE COLLABORATED AND USED THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE
MINS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND. THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH YET WITH LOWS WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
SOME ZERO TO 5 BELOW READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND NEAR
KGFL WITH SOME LOWER TEENS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE VERY COLD TEMPS WILL BE SET THE STAGE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT TO A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST-
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ALOFT, BUT SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE TRAPPED AT THE SFC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN BREAKING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH
SLEET OVER THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDEST TO ERODE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS, THE LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT, WHERE > 0.25" OF FLAT ICE IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
THE NBM. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE WFO ALY FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE MON MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY THE ICY CONDITIONS. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F. TEMPS WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET AROUND 0.33" OF FLAT ICE IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES COULD HAVE A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES, LARGE TREE LIMBS OR
TREES.
THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY PERSIST WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" POSSIBLE BEFORE MON NIGHT. THE DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE
HURON MON PM. IT COULD BE A 975 HPA CYCLONE BASED ON SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AS A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SHARP TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE MTNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RETURN TO A FRIGID AIR MASS WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT INTO THE
MID WEEK. THE LATEST NAEFS INDICATES THE H50 WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL MON NIGHT WITH THE U-WIND ANOMALIES 1 TO 2
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ACTUAL H850 LLJ WILL BE 40-55 KT. THE
NBM90 WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE USED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE DUE
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION, DEEPER MIXING, TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 975-980 HPA OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
(1035 HPA OR SO). SOME WINDS GUSTS 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN
TIME. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR MAX WIND GUSTS (QMD) PROBABILITIES
FOR >45 MPH FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z/1 AM WED ARE 50-90% IN THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, MOHAWK VALLEY,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREENS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE CHILLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH LOW TEMPS
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PARK. HIGHS TUE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
WONT MOVE MUCH WITH THE BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-30
MPH WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEES TO UPPER
20S WITH COLDER READINGS OVER THE WESTERN DACKS. LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUE
WITH THE WESTERN DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY POTENTIALLY
BEING IMPACTED. FAVORABLE DELTA T'S AND MODERATE OR EXTREME
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION LIKELY
WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE PLACEMENT
AND THE TIMING OF THE BANDS IS VARIABLE STILL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THE WESTERN DACKS AND
PERHAPS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE 48-HR NBM PROBS FOR >6"
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z/THU OR 7 PM/WED ARE 30-70%
FOR THE WESTERN DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY (HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES).
A CLIPPER LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WED NIGHT-THU, AS IT COULD DISRUPT
THE LAKE EFFECT. IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
WE CLOSE 2025 AND RING IN THE NEW YEAR. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AS OF 12:05 PM EST, ALTHOUGH
CIGS AT GFL ARE LOW-END VFR AT JUST ABOVE 3000 FT. MAINLY BKN TO OVC
SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS TRENDING FROM MVFR TO LOW-
END VFR. CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHES THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT, SOME FREEZING FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, BUT IF ANY FREEZING FOG/MIST DOES HAPPEN
THEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED IFR
CONDITIONS AT GFL WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER, BUT KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TEMPO GROUPS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS TO INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY. ANY FREEZING FOG/MIST DIMINISHES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW, WITH BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND N/NW AT POU/PSF THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. VERY WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15/27
AVIATION...35
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