026
FXUS61 KALY 271756
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIPPERY TRAVEL AND WALKING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY MORNING.
2. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
EXCEED 40 MPH, DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR A MODERATE
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PARTS OF HERKIMER COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM, A COLD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT, ALLOWING FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AFTER A COLD AND CLEAR START ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY LATER IN THE DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE LOW 30S BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE STORM'S WARM FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW
FOR AN AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM NOSE AROUND 800 HPA TO REACH
+4 TO +10 C, RESULTING IN COMPLETE MELTING OF ANY FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS ALOFT. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY THANKS TO SOME WET-BULBING AT THE SURFACE
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE GROUND IS VERY COLD DUE TO
RECENT COLD TEMPS, SO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING, INITIALLY FIRST FOR SOUTHERN AND
LARGER VALLEY AREAS, AND TAKING THE LONGEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS
AND SHELTERED MOUNTAINOUS SPOTS, SUCH AS WITHIN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WHILE MANY SPOTS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME SHELTERED SPOTS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN, WHERE UPSLOPE WILL PLAY A
ROLE. BASED ON THIS PRECIP AND EXPECTED TEMPS, ALL AREAS WILL
SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE, BUT AMOUNTS FOR A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WHILE THE NBM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN, THE
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER 0.50
INCHES. WIDESPREAD SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE JUST SOME ICE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES FOR ISOLATED SPOTS IN NORTHERN AREAS. STILL, THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, ALTHOUGH WILL
RUN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 850 HPA WILL DROP TO
-14 TO -19 C BY TUESDAY. WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THERE
SHOULD BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THANKS TO THE
DEPARTING STORM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST NBM SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION, INCLUDING THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, BERKSHIRES AND CAPITAL REGION (VALUES IN THE 70
TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR THESE AREAS). THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FOR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THE EXPECTED
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, THE MAIN AREAS TO SEE IMPACTS WILL BE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE FLOW MAY SHIFT ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
TO MAKE IT TOWARDS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS WELL, BUT MOST
OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE
NBM SHOWS A HIGH CHANCE (OVER 50%) FOR AT LEAST 6" OF SNOW THIS
WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE REST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK, BUT THE BEST ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN FOR
FAR WESTERN AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AS OF 12:05 PM EST, ALTHOUGH
CIGS AT GFL ARE LOW-END VFR AT JUST ABOVE 3000 FT. MAINLY BKN TO OVC
SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS TRENDING FROM MVFR TO LOW-
END VFR. CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHES THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT, SOME FREEZING FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, BUT IF ANY FREEZING FOG/MIST DOES HAPPEN
THEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED IFR
CONDITIONS AT GFL WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER, BUT KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TEMPO GROUPS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS TO INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY. ANY FREEZING FOG/MIST DIMINISHES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW, WITH BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND N/NW AT POU/PSF THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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