212
FXUS61 KALY 121111
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
611 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 TO 50 MPH THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
2. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTS IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AS TWO
SYSTEMS INTERACT. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THERE IS
A 15 TO 35% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW BETWEEN 7AM
THURS AND 7AM FRI.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE DEEP MIXING TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST ASOS
AND NYS MESONET OBSERVATION SHOWING MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
TO 50MPH IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO WESTERN MA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 09-10 UTC (5/6AM) BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA(< 46 MPH) AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 AM BUT IF WINDS WEAKEN ENOUGH HAND, WE MAY NEED TO
CANCEL IT EARLY. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY REACHING 20-30 MPH BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ZONAL FLOW TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4-6" NORTH OF ROUTE 28 IN NORTHERN HERKIMER).
WHILE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY GIVEN THE
AREAS WHERE OVER 4" IS EXPECTED IS REMOTE.
TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, INDUCING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MEDIUM FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD AS THIS PARENT TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG AND POTENTIALLY PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. WHILE THERE IS INCREASING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PHASING OCCURRING, THE TIMING REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE ITS COLD
FRONT STALLS AND WHERE ANY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TRACKS. THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST GEFS, GEPS, AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES THAT NOW SUGGEST THE PHASING OCCURS A LITTLE TOO FAR
WEST AND THEREFORE ANY COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA THEREBY KEEPING IMPACTS OVER
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM ANY COASTAL LOW HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARDS, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT
HAVE INCREASED. AS THE PARENT CYCLONE PHASES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AND INTENSIFIES, THE BAROCLINCITY ACROSS THE
COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS THEREBY INCREASING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
IN FACT, GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
EVEN FURTHER. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TRENDING TO MAINLY SNOW BETWEEN DIABATIC COOLING
PROCESSES AND COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM SHOW
30-60% FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FROM 7AM THURS TO 7AM FRI
WITH 15-35% FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW VFR STRATUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS CONTINUE FOR KPSF
THROUGH THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 35 KNOTS. FOR KPOU AND KGFL, WINDS HAVE
DECREASED FASTER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND
15 KNOTS. GUSTS COULD PERIODICALLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DECREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. FOR KALB,
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CHANGE DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...05
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