003
FXUS61 KALY 122319
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INLAND
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
3. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR AND WEBCAMS INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE W. ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" EXPECTED MAINLY FROM AROUND OLD
FORGE NORTH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED ON TUE. THEN A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA TUE NIGHT. WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA, FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY
AROUND 1" OF SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. SW FLOW REGIME WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WITH
LITTLE FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA KEEPING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE.
ON WED, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE EXIST, WITH
MUCH OF OUR AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH THE DAY. SO ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, TAKING MORE OF AN INLAND TRACK. THIS WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE COLD ENOUGH AIR
FILTERS IN. THIS SHOULD START TO OCCUR FROM NW TO SE LATE WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. LATEST 24-HOUR NBM PROBS FROM 7 AM
THU TO 7 AM FRI INDICATE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR > 2" OF SNOW AND A
10-35% CHANCE FOR > 4". GREATEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AT THIS TIME.
SO THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ON THU. EXACT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL MUCH OF DAY INTO THE 10S
AND 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY THU
NIGHT, WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTER IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PATTERN IN THE 6-8 DAY RANGE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK DOES FAVOR POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BASED ON A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH RIDGING EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD FOR NOW AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH MONITORING GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PATTERN. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, SNOW WOULD
BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES WITH BKN-OVC CLOUDS ABOVE 3500 FEET AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF
AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT KPOU. THESE CLOUD COVERAGES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE BUT
REMAIN VFR AT KPOU. GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING TO ALL
SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33
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