012
FXUS61 KALY 131728
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HAVE LOWERED TO LESS THAN 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT BRINGS LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. THEN, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW.
2) MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN.
3) LOW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND
AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END THIS MORNING, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO OUR NORTH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE SNOW
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL. BUT CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PRECIPITATION HEADS THAT FAR
SOUTH IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO STAY FURTHER NORTHWARD FOR THE GREATEST
SNOW AMOUNTS AND SNOW IMPACTS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
ONCE THIS CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
INLAND ACROSS NEW YORK AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND RAINFALL TO VALLEYS. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO VALLEY LOCATIONS. RAIN COULD
TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES USHERING IN, SURFACES COULD BE ICY/SLIPPERY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE START WEDNESDAY OFF WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD AIRMASS BEHIND IT FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FROM THE LOW 30S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS RANGING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH FIVE BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PATTERN IN THE 6-8 DAY RANGE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK DOES FAVOR POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BASED ON A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH RIDGING EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD FOR NOW AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH MONITORING GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PATTERN. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, SNOW WOULD
BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 12:20 PM EST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT GFL
WHERE A TEMPO WAS USED, BUT JUST VCSH INCLUDED FOR ALB/PSF AS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS MUCH MORE ISOLATED HERE. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DID MOVE UP THE TIMING
EARLIER IN THE EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FOR ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THEN, AN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS, SO HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO GIVE A BUFFER
HERE. WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED AT
ALB/POU/PSF. FOR GFL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF SHOWERS ARRIVE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH HERE, ALTHOUGH CIGS
STILL EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KT, INCREASING
TO 10KT FROM THE S/SE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THIS EVENING (LOCALLY
STRONGER AT ALB WITH WINDS OF 15KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT). WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT ALB THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 5-10
KT NO GUSTS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER AROUND 06Z. S/SE WINDS
REMAIN AT 5-10 KT TOMORROW, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AT ALB/GFL.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALB/POU/PSF FROM THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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